Pats Forecast and Weekly Take

Update- 1236 PM 1/14
It will snow Wednesday. Overlooked on Sunday will update later. Football was on my mind

For the first time in my life I found myself standing and clapping for the Ravens last night.  My friends and I were jumping up and down like the Pats had just won the game when Flacco connected with Jones late in the fourth quarter.  While I think beating Denver would have been easier than beating Baltimore  I love when Peyton Manning pukes on his feet in the playoffs.  If you still think Peyton Manning belongs in the conversation with Tom Brady as best of the generation you are out of your mind.  Peyton Manning and Brett Favre belong together; Super Bowl Champion, record setting QBs who threw as many game costing INTs in the playoffs as they did game sealing TDs.    Btw Joe Flacco is 7-4 in the playoffs and if the Ravens hire Norv Turner as OC watch out, that offense has talent.

1997 Divisional Playoffs Pats Steelers (image via Bostino.com and Brokencigar.com)

I had to lead with that, it was one of the best games I've ever seen.  The weather for the Patriots game today is similar to the first game in December.  It will be mild for January with no precipitation.  The air mass is just kind of sitting around

Surface Map HPC 7 AM

A low pressure system is marching across the South but the boundary draped across NY, PA, WV, VA, and NC is not moving much.  There is low level moisture across the area as shown by this map.  Our value is around 0.5/0.6 inches which is soupy without any rainfall.

0.5 precipitable water from SPC

combine this with a snowpack and ice we will have patchy dense fog across the region, including Foxboro.  The radar returns are blank so that leaves us with a mild but murky afternoon.

 Here are the forecast high temperatures

06z GFS 2 m Temps this afternoon (image Wxbell)

The Pats O should be fine.  Pats (-9.5) and over/under is 48.5.  Of course check with your friends for changes in the lines.  The over is enticing as the offenses will not be slowed.  Texans left a lot of points on the field last game.

A Look Ahead

There will be a chance of showers tomorrow as the cold front will get moving and kick the system out.  This is looking like the only precipitation threat for the week.  Here is the 7-day precip totals from the HPC

7 day precip

Temperatures are going to remain above average this week, but will only be topping out around 40 for most.  By the end of the week we will return to a winter pattern.  For the 0-7 day period 

GFS 0-7 day 2 m temp anomaly (image wxbell)

Here is the 8-14 day forecast from the Climate Prediction Center

classic flip from cool west/warm east to warm west/cool east

This is supported by the various "teleconnections" used in meteorology as the NAO/AO are both forecast to dip negative which is a cold mode for the US.  The PNA is forecast to go positive and we are in a neutral ENSO phase.  What does that look like?

8-14 top 10 analog upper air pattern

There are several major snowstorms on this list.  This is an ideal blockbuster snowfall pattern.  The flip beings Thursday evening so enjoy the 40's this week!  What will happen is the mild Pacific air will ride up into Alaska and down the west coast.  The cold Arctic air will be forced south into the eastern half of the US.   Meanwhile there will also be a block up by Greenland.  As long as the NAO is not too negative New England stands a good chance of big snows.

Big snows that show up in 8-14 day analog

February 1994

1993-1994 is an analog year

Presidents Day 2003 Blizzard

Boston set its all time record snowfall with this storm.  2002-03 is an analog year

Valentine's Day 2007 storm

2007 is another analog year.  I'd expect something more like 1994 or 2003 and not an inland runner like 2007 and not a Mid Atlantic masher like 2010.  Again this looks like a February threat but I will be watching for weaker systems cutting through the Great Lakes.  Go Pats!