Light Snow for Monday Afternoon Commute

The temperatures will continue to moderate today but before we can get into the upper 30's and 40's we will see a burst of light snow tomorrow night.  I expect light accumulation for most with the highest totals in New Hampshire and Maine.  Temperatures today will be in the upper 20's and lows tonight will be in the upper teens.  Its been 7 days for most people since we went above freezing and that streak will continue until tomorrow night.
9 AM 2 m Temps (image wxbell)
Here is the surface chart
US Surface Analysis 830 AM
The boundary between the warm and cold air will work towards the north and east today.  A snow/ice storm is impacting the Midwest and that will come our way.  The morning commute will be problem free from a weather perspective here are the temperatures for 7 AM
NAM Hires 2 m T minimums (image wxbell)
Northern New England stays cold but Southern New England is in the upper teens and low 20's.  The snow should move in around 3 or 4 PM.  A warm front lifting Northeast will be the cause of this storm.  Arctic air is in place and the warm air will want to push over the top of the cold (more dense).  This will create an icing situation after the initial snowfall.  The further west one lives in New England the more likely they will be to see ice.
Day 2 Snow Probability > 1 inch (HPC)
Northern New England should be more concerned about snow.  Here is the ice probabilities 
Day 2 ice Probability > 0.01 inches (HPC)
Here is the 1000-850 thickness of the storm for tomorrow at 10 PM
12z NAM 1000-850 thickness, mslp, 6 hr precip (image wxbell)
The actual 850 temps, according to the model
12z NAM 850 mb temps (wxbell)
And the surface temps
12z NAM 2 m T max (image wxbell)
Most areas will begin to flip from snow to sleet and freezing rain by midnight tomorrow.  Its a fast moving system so I don't expect any major damage from the ice in New England.  Snowfall amounts will be generally light.  Here are the probabilities for greater than 0.01 inches of precip for two periods

1 PM-7 PM tomorrow
Ensemble probabilities snow ice rain
7 PM-1 AM tomorrow
Ensemble probabilities snow ice rain
Notice that snow has the highest probability in the afternoon, while Ice is highest in the evening.  On Tuesday expect temperatures to rise to the upper 30's.  Some place will crack the low 40's.  On Wednesday another warm front will move into the Northeast and a burst ice is not out of the question.  Temperatures will once again warm into the upper 40's (50 for some people) before a strong cold front drops a half inch of rain.   That's all for now, have a good day.










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