Snow for Some, Rain for others, Sleet for the rest

Our little system has kicked itself into gear this morning and snow has broken out across the region.

radar 550 AM circled in red is heavier band 

A moderate band of snow is stretching from the Pioneer Valley in Western MA into Northern Worcester County.  Temperatures at low levels are cold enough for snow through the morning.  Here is the latest regional temps

4 AM regional temps (image wxbell)

Here is a surface to mid-level view of the storm

RAP 1 hr forecast (wxbell)

This is a very weak system especially when compared to some of the New England classics we can have around here.  Many schools in Worcester County and Southern New Hampshire are either closed or delayed this morning.  Expect a general 3-6 inches.  Somewhere in Northern Worcester or Southern NH should be the jackpot in this storm.  The snow will be lighter in water content the further north you go.  Down in the Blackstone Valley the snow looks to be heavy and wet.  If you work in RI you will encounter some heavy snow before it changes over to sleet or plain rain.

At the levels just above the surface in the atmosphere warmer air will try to work in.  

RAP 6 hr forecast 850 mb valid 10 AM EST

The green is a good approximation for the rain snow line.  However there is 1 inch per hour snowfall rates occuring in CT.  If these can reach MA they will help generate its own cold air AND surface temps should be around freezing.  So we are looking at some sleet or freezing rain before flipping back to snow this afternoon.  Forecast Hi temps this afternoon

NAM Hi-res 2 PM EST temps (wxbell)

Already reports of sleet in CT which seems likely later.  That will cut into amounts south of Worcester none the less the timing is horrible for the morning commute.  Arctic blast to follow- lows Thursday night will drop to 0.  

NAM Snowfall (wxbell)

This is generally what to expect.  By my count this is 4th snowfall of the season.  Despite some warm spells winter wants to take over and she will, starting soon.   Here is the GFS city gram for Worcester.  Look at hour 156.

Worcester 8 day forecast

I'm liking the late period snow.  Lets just say next Tuesday may be interesting.