Showing posts from December, 2013

Moderate Event Thursday-Friday

More details tomorrow.  Have a Happy New Year

Snow Likely Thursday-Friday

Winter is poised to return to the Northeast this week after a brief spell of above average temperatures.  The timing is Thursday morning into Friday and the precipitation type is snow for everyone except the Cape/Islands.  The details...
General Overview/Short Term Forecast Over the past week the East and West Coasts have seen above average warmth while the Central US has been mainly below average Overall most of the nation was below average for December with the exception of the SE US A tongue of cold water exists along the West Coast while the Atlantic remains warmer than normal.  This is consistent with the Cold PDO/Warm AMO ocean regime.  The PDO appears to be weaker than normal.  This is important because the warm Atlantic will likely juice up any storm that reaches the coast.  Today a cold front pushed offshore and temperatures dropped this afternoon.  Here is the current surface chart
Temperatures tonight will fall to around 10 degrees Another front with a weak low pressure syst…

Grinch Storm Threatens White Christmas; Surprise Xmas Eve?

The Grinch and Heat Miser will attempt to ruin a White Christmas in Southern New England.  However not all is lost; Snow Miser may have one more trick up his sleeve on Christmas Eve.  Do you believe?

General Overview
Here is the the surface chart from 4 PM.  Notice the high pressure off the East Coast and the front to the north of New England
This is a welcome change from the past week The melting began today and will continue.  Here is the upper level pattern which shows ridging over the east.  When we are in a ridge the atmospheric thickness increases and generally it warms. A storm will develop in the Southwestern US and eject into the Plains.  You can see the upper level energy that will drive this storm in So Cal.  It will also tap gulf moisture and make quite a mess in the Central US while also producing severe weather in Dixie.  No worries for travelers; this will clear the coast late on Monday (few showers possible in South Florida on Christmas Eve).  Behind the storm will be a…

Tuesday Winter Weather Event

A small to moderate snow event will impact New England tomorrow.  The snow begins after the AM commute but will impact the PM drive.  The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for much of the region
Here is my forecast

Click to enlarge
Short Term Forecast High pressure in Southern Ontario has locked an Arctic air mass in place Here are the temperatures as of 7 PM
Temperatures tonight will drop near 0.  The storm approaches SW CT by 9 AM.  Will  take some time for the air to saturate due low temps/dew points.  Temperatures tomorrow west of 495 and North of the the Prov-Boston line should stay in the low 20's.  SE MA will warm up to near freezing while the Cape will go above freezing and change to rain.
This is not a major event by any means.  The trouble lies in the timing.  During these systems strong bands of snow can develop that drop 1-3 inches an hour.  That is difficult to drive in when caught on the highway.  It may only last a few minutes or it could …

Winter Weather Event Tomorrow

A clipper system will impact the Northeast tomorrow.  It will be a quick burst of snow between 11 am - 7 pm tomorrow.  Temperatures will be very cold in the interior so expect a powdery snow.
More later.

Winter Storm Watch Issued

The National Weather Service in Taunton, MA has issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of Southern New England.
The watch will likely be upgraded to a warning tonight.  In general 6-12 inches of snow will fall.  Some areas will switch over to mix/freezing rain/rain Sunday morning.  North of the Pike and west of 95 its all snow.
The Storm An Arctic front will push across New England today.  A cold high pressure system will be placed to our North.  Meanwhile a wave will develop in the Southern portion of the Jet Stream and track towards the Northeast.   Here is the storm moving through Texas, being driven by an upper level low in the Southwest. Today will be partly cloudy with high temps 20-25.  Tonight temps drop to around 10 degrees.  There is not much of a rebound on Saturday as high temperatures will be in the mid teens.  Snow will hold off until Saturday evening, though a few flurries or light snow showers will be possible during the day Saturday.  The main batch of precipitation…

Update on Weekend Winter Storm

You may have heard about a winter storm potentially impacting Southern New England this weekend.  A plowable snowfall is likely for many.  Here's a breakdown with my thoughts.

The Big Picture
A series of Arctic fronts will push through the New England tonight and Friday.  This will keep temperatures in the teens and low 20's tomorrow.  The sun will be shining but that will just be for show.  Here is the current surface chart
The main driver of the weekend storm is not even onshore yet in the Western US.  It will enter in Southern CA and track into Texas.  Once there the storm will split and one low center will decay as it moves up into Wisconsin.  Another low will try to run inland but high pressure to the north will force the low to reform off the New England coast.   Here is Saturday morning at 7 am Here are the 850 mb temps (5000 feet) Sunday 1 am These are plenty cold enough to support snow for all of New England through Sunday AM.  By 7 am some warm air will work in off th…

Light Snow Today

A disturbance passing south of New England will deliver 1-3 inches of snow South of the Mass Pike.  A dusting to an inch is likely from the Pike to the MA/NH/VT border.  Isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts appear possible in NE and NW CT into Western Worcester County as well as along the South Shore.  Winter Weather Advisories are up for CT/RI/SE MA
The Big Picture
The radar shows moisture streaming Northeast.  The system is what we call "progressive".  In other words it moves quickly and is gone by this evening.  The upper level atmosphere behaves as a wave.  In the strongest storms the waves really dig deep; we do not have that in this pattern it is a shallow pattern with a bunch of quick hitting systems.  Here is the 500 mb chart On the surface chart we see low pressure in the Southeast US riding along a stalled frontal boundary Now lets look at temperatures.  First at the surface Its below freezing in much of Southern New England.  Temperatures will not rise much today.  Tempera…

Saturday Morning Weather Thoughts

Will there be a white Christmas? Will it snow Monday?  I've heard the questions, now let me provide some answers.  I  took blogging off during football season.  Thankfully it was an awesome fall weather wise.  We were dry and warm most of the time. That is boring for meteorologists but wonderful for football and those who make a living working outside.

Short Term Forecast
A strong Arctic airmass has invaded the Western portions of the US.  Temperatures as of 9 am were below 0 in most of Iowa, Minnesota, North & South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.  This air mass will moderate as it moves east, but this is impressive early season cold.
See the strong high pressure system on the surface chart.  Also notice the front draped across the Southeast US.  See the temperature contrast?

The warmth will try to lift north into New England by Monday. It will run into high pressure in Northern New England which sets up an interesting forecast tomorrow night into Monday. The 500 mb pattern is …