Grinch Storm Threatens White Christmas; Surprise Xmas Eve?

The Grinch and Heat Miser will attempt to ruin a White Christmas in Southern New England.  However not all is lost; Snow Miser may have one more trick up his sleeve on Christmas Eve.  Do you believe?

The Grinch (via www.dragonart.com)

General Overview
Here is the the surface chart from 4 PM.  Notice the high pressure off the East Coast and the front to the north of New England

WPC Surface Analysis 4 PM est

This is a welcome change from the past week

NCEP 2 m temp anomalies past week (image weatherbell)

The melting began today and will continue.  Here is the upper level pattern which shows ridging over the east.  When we are in a ridge the atmospheric thickness increases and generally it warms.

SPC Mesoanalysis 5 PM 500 mb heights 

A storm will develop in the Southwestern US and eject into the Plains.  You can see the upper level energy that will drive this storm in So Cal.  It will also tap gulf moisture and make quite a mess in the Central US while also producing severe weather in Dixie.  No worries for travelers; this will clear the coast late on Monday (few showers possible in South Florida on Christmas Eve).  Behind the storm will be a another blast of Arctic air for the Midwest.  Not sure how strong this will be in New England at the moment.

Weekend Forecast

High temps tomorrow will soar into the 40's region wide.  Tomorrow morning will be around 30.  Expect partly to mostly sunny skies tomorrow.  On Saturday some precip will begin to work into New England 

WPC Saturday 7 am surface forecast 

Waves of low pressure will be riding along the front.  Check out the temperature gradient Saturday

18z NAM 2 m temps Sat 4 PM (image weatherbell)

Temps in New England will be in the upper 40s for most but low 50s looks good in SE MA including Cape and Islands. On Sunday the warm front will try to surge into Northern New England.  As a few veteran New England meteorologists mentioned this morning (Matt Noyes and Tim Kelley of NECN) good luck.  It should get close to Boston and Worcester, if not the MA/NH line.  So that means it could be in the upper 50s in Southern New England and around 30 in Portland, ME.  

18z NAM max 2 m temps Sunday 1 PM (image weatherbell)

In general we are looking at an inch of rain or so.  The timing is tricky because it will come in waves.  That needs to be fine tuned.  But over the next 5 days (until 7 PM Christmas Eve) here is what to expect

WPC 5 day Total Precip 

The warmth and rain will hurt the snowpack.  But the real snow killer is fog.  Expect fog throughout the weekend as the warm front moves over the snow.  Anyways on Monday temps will be around 50 as a cold front pushes through.  Tuesday is interesting.  It will be back to winter with temps around 30.  Also a wave of low pressure will likely develop along the front and move northeast.  It will probably get close enough to New England to drop a few inches of snow.  There is model support but its not a slam dunk.  My gut says YES SNOW.  

12z EURO CONTROL total snowfall (image weatherbell)

So Heat Miser will try to land a mean uppercut this weekend and ensure a Green Christmas.  Will Snow Miser have the last laugh?  

From "The Year Without A Santa Claus".  Not my video, all credit to who owns it.