Saturday Morning Weather Thoughts

Will there be a white Christmas? Will it snow Monday?  I've heard the questions, now let me provide some answers.  I  took blogging off during football season.  Thankfully it was an awesome fall weather wise.  We were dry and warm most of the time. That is boring for meteorologists but wonderful for football and those who make a living working outside.

Short Term Forecast
A strong Arctic airmass has invaded the Western portions of the US.  Temperatures as of 9 am were below 0 in most of Iowa, Minnesota, North & South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.  This air mass will moderate as it moves east, but this is impressive early season cold.
US 2 m temps 9 am EST (image weatherbell)
See the strong high pressure system on the surface chart.  Also notice the front draped across the Southeast US.  See the temperature contrast?

US Surface Analysis
The warmth will try to lift north into New England by Monday. It will run into high pressure in Northern New England which sets up an interesting forecast tomorrow night into Monday. The 500 mb pattern is a bit odd, as it digs a trough in the west, but the ridge is more zonal in the the northeast.  The south is under the influence of a ridge in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean
12z NAM 500 mb geo heights 1 PM Sat (image weatherbell)
A weak area of low pressure will develop near the Gulf coast and track towards New England.  

Saturday Afternoon
Sunny and 38.  Winds out of the northwest 7-12 mph.  

Saturday Night
Clear skies.  Temps 17-22.  Light west winds 2-5 mph.  

Sunday
Partly Cloudy, temps 30-34.  Winds 4-7 mph.  Clouds increase throughout day

Sunday Night-Monday
Precipitation breaks out around 3 am.  Starts as snow, will slowly change to ice and plain rain.  Snowfall accumulations dusting to 2 inches (isolated 3).  Additional rain/ice less than 0.25 inches.  
12z NAM hires total snowfall (image weatherbell)
Not a big deal, just give yourself an extra hour or two.  This system looked more impressive a few days ago.  I don't believe there will be any school cancellations in Southern New England.  Temperatures will not get out of the 30's.  

Extended December Forecast
From USA Today, here are the odds of a white Christmas historically
USA Today Weather White Christmas Odds
Here is the 2 week total snowfall off the EURO control model ending at 7 PM on December 21
00z EURO control total snow (image weatherbell)
Most of this looks to fall around December 17.  The other long range models are also hinting at the possibility of something around this time frame.  Temperatures will generally be below average
GEFS 10-15 day temp anomaly (image weatherbell)
My prediction- a white Christmas and the ice will be safe enough to skate/ice fish by the 25th.  

One final thought- lows may be below 0 next weekend.  Temperature will be running 20-40 degrees below average 
00z EURO 850 mb temps Friday 8 PM (image weatherbell)
Another update tomorrow/Monday.  Have a good weekend.









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