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Showing posts from January, 2017

Snow Tuesday PM

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A light, fluffy accumulating snow will begin tomorrow afternoon and will continue into Wednesday.  A wave of low pressure will pass through Southern New England triggering snow after 2 PM tomorrow.  Tomorrow evening's commute will likely be slick and snowy especially in Worcester/Springfield/Hartford, but also creeping from Metrowest toward Boston.  Light snow should continue through the Wednesday AM commute.  Total accumulated snow will be 1-3" with perhaps a bit more at the coast.  The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* for most of Southern New England from 11 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday.General Overview/Short Term Forecast Here is a snap shot of the water vapor satellite with the surface fronts added. Skies overnight will be mostly clear as low pressure south and east of New England pulls away.  Our storm is in the Midwest so it will take until tomorrow morning for the clouds to return.  The clear sky tonight will allow for temperatures to plu…

Tracking Snow Chances This Week

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A few light snow events are likely this week as the pattern changes back towards a more typical early February pattern.  The upper air pattern has changed but surface temperatures have remained above normal.  This begins to change tonight when a cold front from Canada brings a shot of Arctic air.  The coldest air remains in Northern New England but temperatures in the upper 40's appear to be the exception, not the rule going forward.

General Overview
The surface chart as of 8 AM shows the Arctic boundary beginning to enter the Great Lakes.  A powerful dome of high pressure has built in the Western US.
Here is the 12 PM forecast for the entire US.  Notice the coldest air behind that cold front in Canada.
National temperature anomalies show below average temperatures under the high in the west and in parts of the Eastern US.  It is warm in the Central US and along the immediate West Coast.
Pacific air is being forced up and over the dome of high pressure in the west and then down th…

Seasonably Mild With Some Showers Today

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A frontal system will move into the Atlantic Ocean today bringing an end to the seasonably warm temperatures we have experienced so far in January.  The endless parade of storms into the Western US is keeping the Pacific Coast/Northwest much cooler than normal.  
This front will feature some rain showers as it passes.  Currently, there are numerous showers throughout the Northeast as the warm front pushes Northeast.
The trailing cold front is not far behind.  This system has turned the lake effect snow machine back on after a lull in the Great Lakes.
Most of the US will feature below average temperatures today.  The major exception is the east coast.  Temperature anomalies for the lower 48 show temperatures running nearly 30 (F) below normal in the west and 23 (F) above normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
This translates to max temps in the upper 40's/low 50's in Southern New England.
The threat of precipitation exists this morning until late afternoon.  At 11 AM widespread…

Tuesday AM Update

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Latest Thoughts on Coastal Storm

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It has been snowing off/on all day in portions of Southern New England. This will transition to rain and sleet tonight, mainly north and west of Boston.  There is a *Winter Weather Advisory* for these areas.  In Eastern MA and RI a *Flood Watch* has been issued. A *Wind Advisory* is in effect for Eastern MA, RI, CT, and Hampden and Worcester Counties.  Expect a wet and slow Tuesday AM commute.
She sure is a looker on satellite.  There is moisture being pulled north from the tropics aiding the small stream/urban flood threat in Eastern MA/RI.
The broad but strong surface low is running into high pressure in Quebec.  The upper-level system is also large so a wide band of intense precipitation is making its way into Southern New England while the surface center is hundreds of miles south.  Here is the Northeast Regional Radar.
The temperature profile suggests rain will switch to sleet and freezing rain in Essex, Middlesex, Southern Worcester, and Hampden Counties.  Temperatures in the th…

Weather Impacts For Both Conference Championship Games

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The NFL is fortunate that the NFC Championship will be played in a dome this afternoon.  Many Atlanta Falcons fans and football fans, in general, will be at risk watching the game in the Southeast today. Low pressure is rapidly strengthening along a surface boundary near the FL/GA line.  It will be difficult to get your shine on or cruise this afternoon.  Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening as the low continues to intensify.  These thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes.

This is the same storm system that will bring 1-3" of rain and strong winds to New England Monday-Tuesday.  There are some showers around New England today but these are not associated with the Southern storm.  A cold front is dropping into the region from the North and East, almost in a backdoor fashion.  The second half of the game will likely see a passing shower or two as the boundary of cold dry air meets low-l…

Patriots AFC Championship Weather History

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Today marks the 13th time the New England Patriots will compete for Lamar Hunt Trophy and a right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for a record 9th time.  Pittsburgh is making a record 16th appearance in the AFC Championship Game and they are also looking a record 9th Super Bowl berth.  These two franchises have combined to represent the AFC 11 times since 1995.  Throw in Denver and the Pats, Broncos, and Steelers have combined for 15 AFC titles and 9 titles since 1995.

1985 AFC Championship Game Patriots 31 Dolphins 14

1996 AFC Championship Game Patriots 20 Jaguars 6

2001 AFC Championship Game Patriots 24 Steelers 17

2003 AFC Championship Game Patriots 24 Colts 14

2004 AFC Championship Game Patriots 41 Steelers 27

2006 AFC Championship Game Colts 38 Patriots 34

2007 AFC Championship Game Patriots 21 Chargers 12

2011 AFC Championship Game Patriots 23 Ravens 20
2012 AFC Championship Game Ravens 28 Patriots 13

2013 AFC Championship Game Broncos 26 Patriots 16

2014 AFC Championship Game Patr…