Latest Thoughts on Coastal Storm

It has been snowing off/on all day in portions of Southern New England. This will transition to rain and sleet tonight, mainly north and west of Boston.  There is a *Winter Weather Advisory* for these areas.  In Eastern MA and RI a *Flood Watch* has been issued. A *Wind Advisory* is in effect for Eastern MA, RI, CT, and Hampden and Worcester Counties.  Expect a wet and slow Tuesday AM commute.
NWS PM Headlines
She sure is a looker on satellite.  There is moisture being pulled north from the tropics aiding the small stream/urban flood threat in Eastern MA/RI.
NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES_East IR Rainbow Satellite 
The broad but strong surface low is running into high pressure in Quebec.  The upper-level system is also large so a wide band of intense precipitation is making its way into Southern New England while the surface center is hundreds of miles south.  Here is the Northeast Regional Radar.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
The temperature profile suggests rain will switch to sleet and freezing rain in Essex, Middlesex, Southern Worcester, and Hampden Counties.  Temperatures in the throughout the atmosphere support all rain in Eastern MA/RI.   Here is a snap shot of the radar at 9 PM.
22z HRRR Simulated Radar Monday 9 PM (Image Weatherbell)
It looks like something a 4-year-old brings home from preschool and calls "art".  If I were a parent and my child brought this home it would go right on the fridge.  This simulated radar captures rain, sleet, snow, and freezing rain in one snap shot.  Temperatures do not warm at the upper levels until the low-level storm center gets closer to New England.  This happens tomorrow morning.  Widespread heavy showers (occasional thunderstorms?)
22 HRRR Simulated Radar Tuesday 10 AM
I expect the showers to increase in the afternoon.  This is more likely in Eastern MA and RI.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 1 PM
Total rain 2-3".
NWS total precipitation next 60 hours (image Weatherbell)

The winds will gust 35-45 mph for interior Southern New England and 50-60 mph on the Cape and Island's.   Temperatures are near freezing through the morning in Worcester County.  In Eastern MA/RI temps are in the 40's to near 50!
22z HRRR 2 m temps Tuesday 11 AM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures will remain at or a few degrees above freezing for the next several days.  Later this week temperatures will return to normal for late January/early February,

-Zack Green


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