Seasonably Mild With Some Showers Today

A frontal system will move into the Atlantic Ocean today bringing an end to the seasonably warm temperatures we have experienced so far in January.  The endless parade of storms into the Western US is keeping the Pacific Coast/Northwest much cooler than normal.  
January 2017  surface (2 m) temperatures anomaly (image Weatherbell)
This front will feature some rain showers as it passes.  Currently, there are numerous showers throughout the Northeast as the warm front pushes Northeast.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar
The trailing cold front is not far behind.  This system has turned the lake effect snow machine back on after a lull in the Great Lakes.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 7 AM
Most of the US will feature below average temperatures today.  The major exception is the east coast.  Temperature anomalies for the lower 48 show temperatures running nearly 30 (F) below normal in the west and 23 (F) above normal in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
NWS Max temp anomaly Thursday (image Weatherbell)
This translates to max temps in the upper 40's/low 50's in Southern New England.
NWS Max Temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell)
The threat of precipitation exists this morning until late afternoon.  At 11 AM widespread showers are likely across the region.
10z HRRR Sim Radar Thursday 11 AM (Image Weatherbell)
By 5 PM just a few isolated showers remain.  The evening commute will feature wet roads but temperatures will still be in the upper 30's/low 40's as rush hour begins.
10z HRRR Sim radar Thursday 5 PM (image Weatherbell)
Here is the water vapor satellite of the whole US this morning.
NOAA/NCEP/NWS GOES Water Vapor Satellite
If you want to follow the cloud trail of the frontal system that will deliver our precipitation today notice that it originates in the Pacific Ocean.  Typically when we see a warm winter in Southern New England the source air mass is the Pacific Ocean.  This will change with the new upper air pattern.
00z ECMWF 500 mb heights/anomaly Thursday 1 AM (Image Weatherbell)
This upper-level trough (in blue/yellow/green) will slowly settle over the east coast the next several days.  Temperatures will drop at/below normal temperature values for late Jan/early Feb.  Tonight is down to around 30.
NWS Min temps Thursday night into Friday AM (image Weatherbell)
It will get much colder according to guidance.  Not bitterly cold, but cold enough and much colder than the past few weeks,  High temps aren't all that terrible as we go into Feb.
Worcester, MA 10 day temp forecast via 00z EURO (image Weatherbell)
Small chance of rain/snow showers tomorrow but otherwise dry for the rest of the weekend.

-Zack Green


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