Showing posts from October, 2016

End of October Monster NE US Storms

25 years ago today coastal communities were dealing a powerful unnamed nor'easter that was nearing peak intensity as it moved towards New England.  High winds, cycles of major coastal flooding and heavy rains pounded the Northeast coast.  5 years ago today millions woke up in the dark after a stunning major snowstorm rocked the region.  4 years ago today millions more woke up with no power, many downed trees/power lines and coastal flooding not scene in decades along coastal areas from Hurricane Sandy.  Let's review these storms and then ask the question why late October seems to be a favorable time for generational weather systems.

The Perfect Storm October 28-November 2, 1991
On October 27, 1991 a cold front exited the east largely without incident.  At the same time Hurricane Grace was a Category 2 storm in the SW Atlantic near Bermuda.  A non tropical low formed on the cold front near Nova Scotia that began to move back towards New England.  Thanks to a set of rare atmosphe…

Some Rain But No Major Storms to End October

Some of the most infamous New England/Northeast weather events have occurred at the end of October.  Just in the last 25 years we have seen the Perfect Storm (1991), the Halloween Snowstorm (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012).  Nothing like that is in the forecast this year but a small system is moving through the Great Lakes that will bring rain to the northeast today.  Buffalo is seeing some of this rain right now and the first half of the Pats/Bills game looks wet.  A warming trend will take place into next week.

General Overview
Here is the current radar image for the northeast.  A batch of showers is accompanying an area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes.  The rain is helping clean the streets of Cleveland before a potentially wild party tonight (if the Indians clinch).
Some of the storms near the PA/NY border have lightning accompanying the heavy rain.  The low will ride right across Southern New England along this cold front.
The rain will arrive around 5 PM in SNE.…

Update on Thursday Precipitation

Overnight lows in the upper 20's will give way to rain and snow in the New England.  Most of the snow is in the higher elevations of Western and Northern New England but even Central Mass should see a few flakes before switching over to all rain.  No accumulation is expected but if you are in the Leominster-Springfield-Hartford regions the roads may be slick.  "Warmer" air will make this a rain storm for Southern New England Thursday PM into Friday AM when 0.5-1.5" (locally higher) will fall.

General Overview
High pressure in Ontario will keep this cold air mass in place tonight.  Low will drop into the mid 20's.  Urban areas, the immediate coast, and anywhere that gets wind off the ocean.  The Atlantic is still in the upper 50's so that will keep temperatures in the mid 30's.
High temperatures today maxed in the 40's.  That is 10-13 degrees below average for this time of year.  However both systems move east overnight.  First here is what the lower …

Cold Air Mass Settles Over Region

Its a chilly start across the Northeast this AM and it won't improve much as the day wears on.  Temps are firmly in the mid 30's.  A brisk west to northwest wind will make temperatures in the 40's feel closer to the upper 30's.  Its even colder tomorrow and Thursday AM when snow (yes snow) is possible before a change over to rain.

General Overview
Here are the low temperatures as of 5 AM.  Its near 40 in the eastern urban areas (Boston) and also where the ocean is moderating the air temperature.
Counter clockwise flow around low pressure in E Canada and clockwise flow around high pressure in Ontario are forcing a true Canadian air mass south.
This combo will help keep temperatures in the upper 40's today and will produce winds gusting to near 30.  It will be mostly sunny but the cold and wind will win out to produce a chilly afternoon.  SE MA is the warmest today with max temps near 50.
Tonight there is a freeze threat for areas in Eastern MA that have not yet ende…

Wicked Rains Overwhelm SNE

Over 3" of rain fell in less than hour last night as a cold front and subtropical low pressure system combined to produced drought denting rains.  The drought helped contribute to the flash floods as the rain came down so fast none was absorbed by the dry ground.  Water rain right into streets and overwhelmed storm drains that were covered in leaves.   Another round of rain will move through between 11 AM- 4 PM.  Then winds will pick up with gusts approaching 45-50 MPH tonight before lessening slightly Sunday.

The Aftermath
You can check out all the flooding reports here.  All of the rainfall reports can be found here but I wanted to highlight a few.  I expected a few 3" rain amounts but what happened in Worcester County is ridiculous.
Some isolated showers moved through the region yesterday morning and early afternoon.  Around 4 PM the heavy torrential rain bands began to rotate into Central MA with rainfall coming down at over an inch per hour.  The first whack lasted for …

Rain Will Pick Up In Intensity This PM

It's a dreary morning with fog and a few showers.  Temperatures are in the mid to upper 50's.  Temps will max in the low 70's.  Saturday will be windy and much cooler.  Although high temps will be in the low 60's tomorrow this will occur in the morning before crashing in the afternoon as the west wind picks up and gusts to near 30 MPH.

General Overview
Here is the northeast regional radar loop as of 630 AM.
The actual cold front responsible for all that heavy rain in the Ohio Valley and up into PA and NY is a slow moving frontal boundary.  Its unlikely we see much rain from the actual front as low pressure tracks into Northern New England.  Still the involvement of subtropical moisture will produce locally heavy rain this afternoon as precipitation will be enhanced by the offshore passage of that storm.   Simulated radar at 2 PM shows some rain bands beginning to work across SNE.
Given the atmospheric situation we could see some thunderstorms this afternoon.  I would pe…