Some of the most infamous New England/Northeast weather events have occurred at the end of October. Just in the last 25 years we have seen the Perfect Storm (1991), the Halloween Snowstorm (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012). Nothing like that is in the forecast this year but a small system is moving through the Great Lakes that will bring rain to the northeast today. Buffalo is seeing some of this rain right now and the first half of the Pats/Bills game looks wet. A warming trend will take place into next week.
General Overview
Here is the current radar image for the northeast. A batch of showers is accompanying an area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes. The rain is helping clean the streets of Cleveland before a potentially wild party tonight (if the Indians clinch).
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| NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop |
Some of the storms near the PA/NY border have lightning accompanying the heavy rain. The low will ride right across Southern New England along this cold front.
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| WPC Surface Analysis 8 AM Sunday |
The rain will arrive around 5 PM in SNE. First here is 1 PM. Notice the heavy rain in Buffalo. If I were a wagering man I'd think about the 1st qtr/half under in the Pats/Bills game. The only other NFL game that will be impacted by precipitation is the Jets/Browns game in Cleveland.
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| 12z HRRR Simulated Radar 1 PM |
Here is the 6 PM radar image for the Northeast.
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| 12z HRRR Simulated radar 6 PM (image Weatherbell) |
By midnight the precipitation is offshore.
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| 12z HRRR Simulated Radar 12 AM Monday (Image Weatherbell) |
It looks like the Mass Pike is the dividing line between showers and heavier rain. SE MA is looking at around an inch. Southern Worcester County to Boston and south from Providence to Foxboro should see around 0.5". If the low shifts a little north or south the heavy rain belt will move with it.
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| 12z HRRR total precipitation through 2 AM (image Weatherbell) |
Now precipitation is not the only weather factor that came impact a game. That same cold front the rain is moving across is also a big temperature divider for the US. You can see this in the forecast max temperature for the Northeast today.
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| NWS Northeast Regional Max Temps Sunday (image Weatherbell) |
Temperatures in the Southeast will approach record level this afternoon. The Raiders-Bucs and Falcons-Cardinals games will see max temps in the mid 80's. The other games in the South today are indoors. The white circles mean the NWS is forecasting record highs for those locations.
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| NWS Max temperature forecast/record potential Sunday (image Weatherbell) |
Behind the rain a cold wind and cooler temperatures will flow into the region. So the Halloween forecast is a chilly one. First up tomorrow morning the back to work/school forecast is clear skies with a chilly north wind. Morning lows in the 30's will give way to max temps in the upper 40's/near 50. Tomorrow evening temps will be dropping back into the low to mid 30's. So for the prime trick or treat hours expect clear skies with temps near 40.
Finally despite all this rain the drought will take many months to fully recover from. The recent rains may have added some water to reservoirs and some folks with dug wells may have added rain to their stock. But for the agriculture and long term water storage situation we have a long way to go.
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| US Drought Monitor Red-Extreme Orange-Severe Light Orange- Moderate Yellow-Abnormally Dry |
Coming later today- the End of October Major Storms
-Zack Green
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