Hurricane Matthew and Southern New England

Hurricane Matthew is a powerful category 4 storm located in the central Caribbean Sea.  Of immediate concern is the impact the storm will have on Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and the Bahama's.  The storm will travel towards the Carolina coast before either continuing towards Cape Cod or stalling and hooking right out to sea.  Ideally we will see little wind but several inches of rain next weekend.

General Overview
Here is the 5 AM advisory for Matthew from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) including forecast track and watches and warnings.
NHC 5 AM Matthew Advisory 
The storm has been a major hurricane since Friday when it became the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007.  The nine year gap between Cat 5's storms followed a active period from 2003-2007 that saw 8 storms reach the top of the scale.
Atlantic Cat 5's since 1995 (via NHC archives)
Here is the storm on satellite this morning.  What stands out to me is the large size of the hurricane.  It will bring 15-25" of rain to parts of Hispaniola.  Haiti does not handle hurricanes well so this will get real ugly.
GOES_East rainbow Infrared Satellite (image NCEP/NOAA/NWS)
Guidance is pretty consistent through Friday with the track of the storm.  It will likely expand its wind field quite a bit as it emerges into the SW Atlantic.  Here are the tracks from 2 AM this AM from a variety of weather models.
2 AM Spaghetti Model Chart (Tropical Tidbits)
So let's pick this up at Saturday.  While a lot can change in 120 hours there is a good agreement that a major hurricane will approach the Carolina coast before moving Northeast.  At what angle it moves remains to be scene.  The EURO hooks the storm to right but then stalls it.  The GFS has a stronger upper level trough moving through the Midwest so it takes the storm to the North Northeast.  Here is the GFS on Saturday at 2 PM.
06z GFS MSLP/radar Saturday 2 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)
In this scenario the Hurricane would combine with a cold front to drop a lot of rain in the northeast with strong winds.  While the wind damage and power outages would be unwelcome the rain would be.
WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM
The EURO solution and the GFS solution are both on the table.  The WPC is blending both as a compromise.  In this scenario we get about an inch of rain and little wind.  My advice is to be ready for hurricane even if odds say it skirts out to sea.  We have 6 days so I'll keep you informed.

As for today some showers are possible this afternoon and high temps are in the upper 60's,  The rest of the weeks looks dry with day time temps in the 60's and lows in the 40's.

-Zack Green


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