Friday Night Forecast (on Thursday)

Steady but welcome rain will spread northward overnight bringing beneficial rain to the region by morning. Rain will be off and on in spots before filling in later Friday afternoon.  This will continue into Saturday afternoon with temperatures generally in the upper 50's/low 60's.  Showers stick around through Sunday night to close out a wet weekend.

General Overview
The radar shows decent rains in the Baltimore-NYC region slowly advancing north.

NWS Northeast radar loop 

High pressure in New England is keeping us dry at the moment.  That high will weaken slightly allowing the precipitation to reach New England tomorrow morning but it will not be strong until the high moves to the north and east towards Nova Scotia Friday afternoon.  Here is the current surface chart.

WPC Surface Analysis Thursday 5 PM

Here is the simulated radar for Friday 8 AM.  While it appears most of the rain is to our west and south some showers will be around in Southern New England.

18z NAM hires simulated radar Friday 8 AM (Image Tropical Tidbits)

This rain steadily increases and by Friday evening we will see a steady soaking rain.  Here is the simulated radar for 6 PM

18z NAM hires simulated radar Friday 6 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)

Thanks to this temperatures will max near 60.  The wind will again be out of the northeast so there will be that nasty bite to the air again tomorrow.  The surface forecast map for 8 PM Friday shows low pressure moving along a stalled frontal boundary with high pressure to the north.

WPC Surface Forecast Friday 8 PM

This rain continues into Saturday.  Here is the 11 AM simulated radar.

18z NAM Hires simulated radar Saturday 11 AM (image Tropical Tidbits)

The culprit of all this mischief is this upper low in the Ohio Valley.

18z NAM 500 mb vort Saturday 2 PM (Image NCEP/NOAA)

This will slowly move east.  As it does it will help to pull Hurricane Matthew to the north into Jamiaca, Cuba, or Haiti (or all 3).  Here is the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.  This puts the storm in an interesting position in 5 days.

NHC 8 PM Advisory and Forecast Track

Some models show this storm causing trouble at the end of next week.  A good scenario would involve only rainfall to Southern New England.  That said most storms escape out to sea in early October.  The Mid Atlantic and Northeast have really only been hit 2 times in the last 65 years (1954-Hazel  2012- Sandy).  But there are some anomalous weather patterns present in the Northeast and Western Atlantic so its one to watch.  The drought monitor is out and Massachusetts really needs the rain.  Wells are drying up in Central and Eastern Mass.  This is impacting residents who depend on well water and crops as we approach the harvest.

September 27, 2016 US Drought Monitor

I'll be watching for you.  Stay dry this weekend.

-Zack Green