Taste of Fall at the End of the Week

Get the pumpkin coffee, pie, and beers ready!  I actually don't like any of those (won't say no to a Sam Octoberfest tho) but many do.  A cold front will push through New England tomorrow afternoon.  Behind the fropa (frontal passage) Canadian high pressure will build.  Nighttime temperatures will fall into the 40's while day times highs will be right near 70 for Thursday and Friday.  Before we get to that a few thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow.

General Overview
The past two days have been extremely pleasant.  We still need rain badly but it's just not in the cards.  Might as well enjoy the beautiful weather.  Temperatures will not fall much overnight.  Expect lows in the 60's.  Humidity levels will creep into the low 60's tomorrow which isn't too bad.  High temperatures tomorrow will reach into the low to mid 80's with a west wind.
NWS NDFD 2 m max temps Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
Here is the forecast surface map at 2 PM tomorrow.
WPC Surface Forecast 2 PM Wednesday 
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has noted a marginal threat for severe weather tomorrow afternoon.  Atmospheric conditions appear similar to Sunday AM.   The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts exasperated by the ongoing drought.  Winds that normally wouldn't knock down trees could.  This is a small chance but a chance none the less.
SPC Day 2 (Wednesday) Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
 The afternoon radar does not look super impressive for Southern New England.  It does seem like the best action for thunderstorms will be NE MA/S NH/S ME and then another round in SW CT.  Still a few cells will be possible in MA, NE CT and RI.
18z NAM hires simulated radar 5 PM (image College of Dupage WxCenter)
We need rain and it leads to temperatures like this on Tuesday.
NWS NDFD 2 m amx temps Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Similar weather extends into Saturday.  Here is the Saturday AM surface chart.
WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM
The low pressure and cold front in the Great Lakes will get to New England for Sunday.  This may impact all Northeast/Mid Atlantic NFL games on Sunday but given the drought the system could very well trend drier as we approach the weekend.

Look for a morning update on facebook on the thunderstorm outlook.

-Zack Green


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