Saturday Afternoon Hermine Update

I don't really have much to add to yesterday's forecast which can be found here.  I am more confident of wind and rain overnight Sunday into Monday.  Tuesday remains a question mark that could also be unsettled.  Hermine has evolved into a non-tropical low but that is really irrelevant as to what will happen.  She probably will return to hurricane status early next week.

New Updates
Tropical Storm watches are now posted for Rhode Island and the Cape/Islands.
NHC Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine track/watches and warnings
The Hurricane Center has increased the probability that Southern New England sees tropical storm force winds which I agree with.  Guidance has shown the wind field expanding into Southern New England (up to around Route 2/495).  We are looking a 50% (brown) to 60% (orange) chance of tropical storm force winds which are gusts greater than 39 MPH.
NHC Probability of tropical storm force winds
The winds above the surface at about 3000-5000 feet are strong.
12z NAM 850 mb winds Monday 5 AM (Image Tropical Tidbits)
But we will need precipitation to brings these to the surface.  Bands of rain will rotate from the Atlantic onshore starting overnight Sunday into Monday.  They won't bring flooding rains to the region but these will be the bands that can produce some tree/power line damage.  The other threat remains rough surf/storm surge/beach erosion.    Here is the simulated radar Sunday night 11 PM
12z NAM hires simulated radar Sunday 11 PM (image College of Dupage WxCenter)
So any weddings, pig roasts, cook outs on Sunday afternoon should be fine.  Winds will increase due to the interaction between high pressure to our north and Hermine (low pressure) to our south,   Here she is on water vapor satellite
NOAA GOES East water vapor satellite
Latest trends also spare the Mid Atlantic much more than previous trends in terms of less surge and wind.  That means a bit more wind/surge in Southern New England.  We have tomorrow to finalize plans.  Enjoy your Saturday.

-Zack Green


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