Showing posts from 2014

2014's Top 5 Southern New England Weather Events

In recent years Southern New England has experienced its share of region wide major weather events.  2011 alone had several events that would be clear cut number 1's in most years (January snows, June tornado, Hurricane Irene, the October Snow).  2012 was a bit more calm but it still featured a record warm March and Hurricane Sandy.  2013 will be remembered for The February Blizzard and the awful heat/humidity/rain of June and July.   
2014 had a lot of weather but it lacked that one big event that impacted everyone like the events mentioned above.  That is not to say mother nature spared the region; numerous storms caused damage and hardships.  
5.  Thanksgiving Eve Nor'Easter For residents of Northern New England this event would rate higher on the list.  Hundreds of thousands of residents lost power for days as heavy wet snow sent tree limbs and power lines crumbling to the ground.  In Southern New England 1-3 inches of rain fell across SE MA/RI/CT.  1-3 inches of snow fell …

Winter Storm Watches Posted for Wednesday

A coastal storm will bring accumulating snow Southern New England Wednesday into Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.  Without any true Arctic air locked in there will be a fine line between rain/snow.  As it stand now this line should work back towards 495, but will struggle to get much further.  The Cape, Southern RI, and Coastal CT will likely be shut out.

General Overview Low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow afternoon By Wednesday AM the system will begin to deepen off the North Carolina coast.  This storm will not "bomb" on its way up the coast nor will it phase with another low diving through the Midwest; the pattern is moving too fast.   There is some relatively warm water off the East Coast so that will enable some strengthening  More importantly this system will develop in the Gulf meaning it will bring lots of tropical moisture with it.  Here are the 3 day precipitation totals, ending Thanksgiving night at 7 PMTiming and Impacts Precipitation will be…

Significant Flood Situation in SE MA Tonight

There have been reports of 3-5" of rain in the New Bedford area already today as Hurricane Arthur races Northeast towards the Canadian Maritime.  An additional 3-6+ inches of rain is likely in Bristol and Plymouth counties which will lead to a significant flooding event in that portion of the state.   That band of yellow and red along the S MA coast has been nearly stationary all afternoon.  Flash Flood Watches are up for most of the state, with warnings in effect for the South Coast Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Cape and Islands with a Hurricane Warning for the waters offshore.  Here is the latest advisory from the Hurricane Center The winds are not going to be a major deal outside of the Cape, but a few gusts over Tropical Storm force are possible across Eastern MA.  Gusts up to 60 are possible in Nantucket/Outer Cape.  The Upper Cape/Vineyard are looking at 45-55 in general.  The major story will be the rain.  The WPC has issued a precipitation discussion fo…

Hurricane Arthur Will Bring Rain to SNE

We officially have our first Hurricane of the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Arthur has been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am.  The storm will still track south and east of the Cape, but some heavy rain is expected tomorrow.  Tropical Storm force winds are likely on the Outer Cape/Islands. 

The 5 AM advisory/track/warnings

A cold front is slowly moving east towards the coast.

The line of thunderstorms died out as it entered Worcester County yesterday.  The same areas that saw some severe weather and flash flooding are expected to again today. 

Heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards but hail and a brief tornado are not impossible back in NY/VT.  In anticipation of heavy rain there are flash flood watches up for many places in the interior Northeast (in green). 

For today there will be rounds of showers/thunderstorms throughout SNE.  Some places will stay completely dry, others will be hit multiple times.  Keep …

Tropical Storm Arthur Update (UPDATE 206 PM)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for much of Southern New England
Most of the thunderstorm activity will be north and west of Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth.  Here is the short range high resolution computer simulation for 4 PM

The action should wane this evening before firing back up tomorrow.  Our buddy Arthur is looking better this afternoon

He may be a Hurricane by the end of the day.  The latest EURO computer model just arrived and is showing significant rainfall in Eastern New England.  More tonight/tomorrow morning.
Good Morning.  As expected Tropical Depression 1 was named Tropical Storm Arthur yesterday at 11 am.  Since that time the pressure has fallen and winds have increased.  The storm is still fighting dry air
Notice the dark colors north of the system.  That is dry air that is killing some of the thunderstorm growth in the center of the storm.  We do see thunderstorms making a com…

1st Tropical System to Impact July 4th Plans

A tropical depression has formed off the Florida coast and is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm/Hurricane by the end of the week.  It will impact the 4th of July holiday up and down the East Coast.
Currently winds are 35 mph but the storm is expected to be named Arthur later today
By Friday Night/Saturday morning a hurricane may be passing south and east of the Cape.  Right now the storm is not moving much.  It will begin to move in response to a cold front pushing east out of the Midwest

This cold front/tropical interaction will create interesting weather for the next several days.  First of all, severe weather is likely in parts of the Northeast tomorrow, though not for Southeastern New England

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday is when Southern New England may get into the severe action.  Of greater concern is the potential interaction between the tropical system and this front.  The NAM low res has precipitable water amounts of 2"

As of now it appears at least an in…

Mother's Day Weekend Forecast

It looks like a brief warm up is on the way for the weekend.  Enjoy it!  Here is the forecast for the rest of the week/weekend.

Short Term Forecast
Temperatures this afternoon are generally in the upper 50's.  However when there are breaks of sun and the wind relaxes temperatures jump into the mid 60's
Here is the current regional radar loop Here is the visible satellite These clouds and showers are driven by differences in ground temperature and cold air aloft.  Check the surface chart and notice flow is out of Northwest around high pressure in Ontario/Quebec Also notice the front draped horizontally across the US.  This front will slowly push north and east as a trough in the west digs.  This will allow for some severe weather in the Central US over the next several days.  In the meantime tonight clouds will dissipate tonight so temperatures will fall into the upper 30's/low 40's.  
Wednesday High pressure will remain in control tomorrow.  Winds will be lighter (except…