1st Tropical System to Impact July 4th Plans

A tropical depression has formed off the Florida coast and is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm/Hurricane by the end of the week.  It will impact the 4th of July holiday up and down the East Coast.
NOAA GOES-East IR rainbow satellite loop
Currently winds are 35 mph but the storm is expected to be named Arthur later today
NHC 5 am advisory/5 day track
By Friday Night/Saturday morning a hurricane may be passing south and east of the Cape.  Right now the storm is not moving much.  It will begin to move in response to a cold front pushing east out of the Midwest

5 am Surface Analysis (WPC)
This cold front/tropical interaction will create interesting weather for the next several days.  First of all, severe weather is likely in parts of the Northeast tomorrow, though not for Southeastern New England

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday is when Southern New England may get into the severe action.  Of greater concern is the potential interaction between the tropical system and this front.  The NAM low res has precipitable water amounts of 2"

06z NAM op precipitable water Thurs 11 am (image weatherbell)
As of now it appears at least an inch of rain will fall across much of the area in the next 5 days.  There will be jackpot areas of much more rain but its tough to tell where these will be right now.

WPC 5 day precip forecast
Guidance will help today as the storm gets a bit stronger and starts to move slowly northward.   It is important to remember that sea surface temperatures are above normal along the east coast.  This system is small so strengthening is likely.  While unlikely, a more westerly track would have big time implications for coastal Southern New England.  Even with a track south and east high waves and rip currents will effect beaches this weekend.

OSPO SSTA 6.30.14
With a weak El Nino likely to develop this summer, most of the tropical action will be in close to the United States.  One can see the Eastern Gulf and SW-Central Atlantic as prime areas for development this season.  More to come. 

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