Hurricane Arthur Will Bring Rain to SNE

We officially have our first Hurricane of the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Arthur has been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center as of 5 am.  The storm will still track south and east of the Cape, but some heavy rain is expected tomorrow.  Tropical Storm force winds are likely on the Outer Cape/Islands. 

Overview
The 5 AM advisory/track/warnings

5 am NHC Advisory Hurricane Arthur
A cold front is slowly moving east towards the coast.

WPC 5 am Surface Analysis
The line of thunderstorms died out as it entered Worcester County yesterday.  The same areas that saw some severe weather and flash flooding are expected to again today. 

SPC Day 1 Outlook
Heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards but hail and a brief tornado are not impossible back in NY/VT.  In anticipation of heavy rain there are flash flood watches up for many places in the interior Northeast (in green). 

NWS Eastern Region HQ hazards Page
For today there will be rounds of showers/thunderstorms throughout SNE.  Some places will stay completely dry, others will be hit multiple times.  Keep an eye to the sky.  Boston should be ok for the fireworks tonight.

Friday
Any overnight rain ends early enough that the first half of Friday is dry, albeit muggy.  Around early afternoon the rain from Arthur should arrive.

06z NAM hires Simulated Radar 2 PM Fri (image Weatherbell)
The heaviest winds are from about 5 PM-3 AM for SE MA.  I can't rule out a few stronger gusts in Central MA/E CT/N RI if a strong rain band works north but this is a low probability.  Here is the 3 day rain forecast from the WPC

WPC 3-day rainfall outlook
Worcester and Boston are looking at ~1.75", with  ~2" in Providence, Brockton, ~2.5 in Plymouth, Hyannis.  3"+ likely Outer Cape/Islands.  This is not a major storm for New England, in fact many recent Nor'Easters have had a greater impact.  However it is distruptive.  The good news is after this clears high pressure builds for the rest of the weekend. 

-Zack Green


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