Tropical Storm Arthur Update (UPDATE 206 PM)

A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for much of Southern New England
STSW 386 (SPC)
Most of the thunderstorm activity will be north and west of Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth.  Here is the short range high resolution computer simulation for 4 PM

16z HRRR simulated radar valid 4 PM (image weatherbell)
The action should wane this evening before firing back up tomorrow.  Our buddy Arthur is looking better this afternoon

NOAA  GOES_Tropical Floater visible satellite 145 PM
He may be a Hurricane by the end of the day.  The latest EURO computer model just arrived and is showing significant rainfall in Eastern New England.  More tonight/tomorrow morning.
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Good Morning.  As expected Tropical Depression 1 was named Tropical Storm Arthur yesterday at 11 am.  Since that time the pressure has fallen and winds have increased.  The storm is still fighting dry air
GOES_floater Water Vapor Loop (NOAA)
Notice the dark colors north of the system.  That is dry air that is killing some of the thunderstorm growth in the center of the storm.  We do see thunderstorms making a comeback in more recent images.

NWS Southeast Regional Radar
The National Hurricane Center has been consistent with the track.  It should pass either right over or just to the east of the Outer Banks before racing south and east of the Cape

NHC Forecast track/intensity, watches & warnings
Most guidance shifted slightly west overnight.  It still appears rounds of tropical downpours are likely tonight through Friday with a chance for stronger bands later Friday night as Arthur passes.  As of now I recommend keeping plans North and West of the Pike.  I would be prepared to deal with Tropical Storm conditions in SE MA/RI.  A clear picture will emerge today as to where any potential heavy rain sets up. 

Here is the WPC 5-day outlook

WPC 5 day precip outlook
It does appear the heaviest rains will be in the Mid-Atlantic and up through Albany as well as the Cape/Islands.

WPC Surface Forecast Thursday 8 PM
Again tropical systems are difficult for the models to handle.  There is a 10-20% chance much of Southern New England sees tropical storm force winds which could bring down some trees/power lines.  That's a 80-90% chance it won't happen, but something to keep an eye on. 

Have a good day
-Zack

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