Showing posts from 2012

2012 Southern New England Weather Review

Coming off a wild 2011 no one knew what to expect in 2012.  Thankfully mother nature blessed the United States with a warm year and a relatively calm year for New England.  Ski resorts, plow operators, and others who rely on snow for income suffered during the winter season.  Save for two or three light snow events winter was non-existent and after the pounding New England took in 2011 this was welcome many others.  It looked like New England and the rest of the East Coast would escape damage from tropical weather as August and September went without any hurricanes.  October was looking to trend the same way and it looked as if danger had passed.

1. Hurricane Sandy
Then came Sunday October 21, 2012.  That is the day nearly all major weather models showed a complex interaction of a Hurricane and an Arctic cold front.  The guidance continually showed a transfer of energy when the two began to interact and the birth of "Superstorm".  The landfall was not certain until about Frid…

Cold Week Ahead

A cold Arctic air mass supported by a fresh snow pack will allow low temperatures to approach 0 across portions of Southern New England.  Areas of Northern New England are looking at low temperatures -20 below zero.  I measured 11 inches in Northbridge and received reports of 12 inches in Douglas from multiple sources.  Here is a link to reported snowfall totals.  Thankfully the jet stream was moving 150 MPH at upper levels or else last nights snow would have been one for the ages.  Still, it was the biggest snowfall since February 2011.

There is a low potential snow chance next weekend.  This is a low probability event; most likely we remain dry.  There is a chance for snow squalls with the passage of these Arctic fronts as well.  Wednesday/Thursday will be the days to watch for this.

Here is the average temperature anomaly for the next seven days according to the GFS ensemble
The coldest nights look to be Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning And then again Wednesday Night into Thur…

Snow Chance Saturday Night, then Arctic Cold

The coldest weather in at least 3 years, if not 9 years will begin to invade New England early next week.  This will be preceded by a few inches of snow Saturday into Saturday night.  There looks to be multiple chances to get to 0 or below.  First let's start with Friday's weather and move forward.

A mainly sunny day with temperatures in the low 30's for much of Southern New England.  Colder in the north country where a deep snowpack will help keep temperatures down.  Winds will be blustery this morning, especially those closest to the coast but they will relax this afternoon .  Clouds will increase overnight and the temperature will drop into the low 20's/upper teens.  Then low pressure will form off the Maryland/Delaware coast and track south of New England. There is moderate agreement from computer guidance on this system but the total amounts are still being worked out.  There is a 10 percent chance of at least 4 inches of snow for much of Southern New England

Snow tonight

A little tired after the two day holiday celebration so here is a map with my forecast snow totals for tonight's event.  More later but system will begin as snow tonight before switching over to rain tomorrow morning for the Blackstone Valley.

I expect the rain snow line to collapse back to Worcester.  This may take longer than expected in my forecast so the 2-4 could easily fall into 4-8.  Snow starts to fall around 5 or 6 and will switch to rain by daybreak.  The rain ends tomorrow around noon.
More this afternoon.

A White Christmas After All?

While there has been a lot of brown ground in 2012 (both early and now late) mother nature is sending a Christmas snowstorm to New England.  A piece of energy from the trough off the West Coast will combine with energy streaming out of Southwest Canada to form an Alberta Clipper.  Clippers tend to bring light snows to the Midwest and Great Lakes but they tend to bring Arctic conditions behind them.  This is important for another storm Wednesday and Thursday; more on that later.

Bitter cold will invade the upper plains for Christmas Day.  There will be plenty of cold for snow in the Northeast.   Here is the North American Model forecast for 11 AM EST Christmas Day Here is the 8 day forecast for Worcester, projected by the American Global Forecast System (GFS) And the EURO forecast for Worcester EURO is a bit warmer than the GFS but still puts out close to 20 inches of snow for portions of Southern New England This is not snow depth as some will melt and compact but you get the general…

First Day of Winter Arrives with Rain

A quick band of snow, sleet, and rain moved across the area around 130 AM.  That was not unexpected but probably a bit startling to those who woke up to the sound.  The next batch of rain is right along the MA/CT border.  Areas like Douglas, Sutton, Webster, Dudley, Charlton, and Southbridge will certainly see rain by 730 AM. Areas east may avoid this rain band.  Don't worry there is plenty more and the rain could fill in for Eastern MA.
A new low pressure wave has been spawned along the front.  This usually happens and sometimes the coastal low becomes dominant and produces a major nor'easter; more on that tomorrow (next week a storm possibility).  Regardless Southern New England should enter the warm sector for a period this afternoon.  There will be isolated thunderstorms in the sector during the late morning/early afternoon hours. The Storm Prediction Center highlights a chance of convection (thunderstorms) Strong winds will be the biggest threat with any thunderstorms tha…

Major Storm Ripping Across United States

A blizzard, tornado outbreak, arctic outbreak, and flooding rains are tearing across the United States this morning.  No its not the end of the world, its a potent winter storm tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture and interacting with an arctic air mass and the result is plethora of weather to talk about.
There have been unconfirmed reports of tornado striking Mobile, AL this morning Meanwhile there is a cold side to the severe weather and this will drop over a foot of snow in some areas in the Midwest.  Here is what the HPC is thinking for snowfall probabilities. Notice how Chicago is in the 10 percent chance of greater than 4 inches.  They haven't had measurable snow since March 4, 2012.  This will break the record streak.  Here are the probabilities for snowfall greater than 1 foot. This system will move into New England tomorrow.  High winds and heavy rains are the major threats.  Here is tomorrows snowfall probabilities The low pressure system will cut through New England leaving…

Two Rounds of Rain but Cold Air Lurking

A wave of low pressure riding along a frontal system is moving into Southern New England this morning bringing with it some heavy downpours.
While the rain is heavy it is moving quickly and should be clearing the area by 11 AM.  Temperatures for the next four days will be above average and Wednesday is a sunny and mild, by December standards.  Today's temperature will be near 50 degrees.  Here is the surface chart for early this morning; note the warm front lifting north. Here is the temperature anomaly for the first 5 days of our forecast period (through Saturday) in Celsius  Now look whats coming in time for Christmas The Upper Plains are in line to see some wicked Arctic cold in this period.  This is only the GFS which has a questionable reputation...but the EURO agrees.  Here is the EURO ensemble for Christmas Eve at 7 PM EST No surprise with the Arctic Oscillation crashing to negative values.  This is allowing the polar vortex to send shots of cold Arctic air into the United…

Winter Weather Advisory today, Rain this week, and a Look at Climate Change

What looked to be a promising week for snow lovers has fallen off the table completely.  While there will be some snowflakes flying today and tonight it will not be the event I envisioned several days ago.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Worcester County, Northwest Middlesex County, Franklin County, and Hampshire County in Massachusetts.
A coastal flood statement has been issued for much of the MA shoreline.  Minor coastal flooding is likely in areas prone to splash over.  The main concern today and tonight will be freezing rain.  A inch or two of snow is possible especially north of Worcester.  Southwest NH will pick up a little more.  Roads that are not treated will be slippery tomorrow.  After this first storm guidance keeps up with an active pattern.  A rain storm Tuesday and another Friday will impact Southern New England.

Storm Number 1 Snow begins to move in around 3 PM.  Will be change over to a mix in the early evening and eve…