Major Storm Ripping Across United States

A blizzard, tornado outbreak, arctic outbreak, and flooding rains are tearing across the United States this morning.  No its not the end of the world, its a potent winter storm tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture and interacting with an arctic air mass and the result is plethora of weather to talk about.

Tornado Watch until 1 PM EST

There have been unconfirmed reports of tornado striking Mobile, AL this morning

Mobile is at mouth of Bay in Southern Alabama 

Meanwhile there is a cold side to the severe weather and this will drop over a foot of snow in some areas in the Midwest.  Here is what the HPC is thinking for snowfall probabilities.

Probability of snowfall greater than 4 inches

Notice how Chicago is in the 10 percent chance of greater than 4 inches.  They haven't had measurable snow since March 4, 2012.  This will break the record streak.  Here are the probabilities for snowfall greater than 1 foot.

Wisconsin and Michigan to be the big winners today

This system will move into New England tomorrow.  High winds and heavy rains are the major threats.  Here is tomorrows snowfall probabilities

Friday 4 inch snowfall probs

The low pressure system will cut through New England leaving the region on the warm side.  Temperatures should jump into the 50's tomorrow 

From Weatherbell, 00z EURO temps for tomorrow afternoon

Hopes of snow are not completely dashed; the very end of this system on Friday night or Saturday could coat the ground with a dusting to an inch.  In fact tonight it may begin as snow/sleet before changeover occurs.  Southeastern MA including Cape and Islands is under a High Wind Watch.

NAM hires 900 mb windspeeds from Dr. Maue and Weatherbell

These will not all mix to surface but some models are hinting at convection firing with these storms.  Trends indicate this is likely especially seeing whats going on in Dixie this morning.  Here is the projected radar image for noon tomorrow.

These bands would help mix down those strong 900 mb winds

Its not out of the question to see power outages tomorrow.  More later.