Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Tuesday Weather Update

High is backing toward the Eastern New England shoreline this morning and this will remain in control for the rest of the week.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60's today and tomorrow.  They should approach the low 70's on Thursday before a cooler day Friday and Saturday.  After the brief dance with cooler temperatures things are looking good in the extended long range.

Current Conditions/Short Range Forecast
Some areas have a wind directly off the water this morning.  These areas are colder than the Western zones
5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
The high pressure center is very close to the central New England coast
WPC surface analysis 330 am
The flow of the high pressure backing towards the coast has allowed for some sprinkles to break out in New York state
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 548 am
Today will remain dry in Southern New England.  Here is the Weather Prediction Center 1 day outlook
WPC 1 day precipitation outlook
That moisture is excellent for Nebraska.  Back here the latest short range models likes temperatures near 70 today
09z RAP 2 m temp 3 pm (image weatherbell)
Areas in the Merrimack River Valley of NH/MA as well as the Connecticut River Valley in MA/CT will have the best chance to see 70 today.  Tonight lows drop to low to mid 40's.  Winds will remain light and out of the east. For Wednesday the high pressure will fall down the coast a bit.
WPC surface forecast Wednesday 8 pm
Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with more of an east wind.
06z NAM hires 2 m temps Thursday 2 pm (image weatherbell)
We also stay dry and winds relatively light tomorrow 
WPC day 2 precipitation outlook
Low temperatures are in the upper 40's tomorrow night.  On Thursday the high falls a bit to the south which will introduce a southwesterly flow into the region.
00z EURO MSLP Thursday 8 pm
This will lead to temperatures in the low 70's
00z EPS Control 2 m temp Thurs PM (image weatherbell)
Friday looks to be cooler- more on that tomorrow.  Two final points- fire danger is increasing rapidly.  Also it could be much worse.  Here is the Midwest forecast for later this week
00z EURO snowfall forecast (image weatherbell)
This is the first week of May- astounding.  Talk to you tomorrow.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Persistent Pattern Leads to Mild Dry Weather

In general the next week to two weeks will be dry and mild in Southern New England.  A developing block will keep high pressure in charge.  Wind direction is the most important factor in determining temperature this week.  Any easterly wind will keep temperatures down and correspondingly a wind out of the west will be warmer.

Current Conditions/Observations
A weakening upper air disturbance has generated some lift in the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley and the result is widespread showers in these regions.  Low pressure is also working northeast out of the Carolina's.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am
One can see these features well on the water vapor satellite 
Goes_E Water Vapor satellite 515 am (NOAA)
On the surface chart the we can see the high pressure to the east of New England better
WPC surface analysis 330 am
Here is the 500 mb chart showing the ridge over New England and the trough that extends just along the Appalachians.  
06z NAM 500 mb vort valid 8 am (NCEP)
That is the atmospheric big picture.  Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 40's in Southern New England 
5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
It's already 50 in extreme SW CT.  Interestingly this is where it will likely be the coolest this afternoon.  The rain will struggle to get into New England.  SW CT and Western MA is where there is a good chance of precipitation today.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 60's in Southeastern NE
09z RAP 2 m temps 2 pm (image weatherbell)
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 1 day rainfall forecast looks like this
WPC 1 day precipitation outlook
Similar weather. Temps in the mid to upper 60's.  Skies will clear Tuesday afternoon and this will last into Wednesday. Winds will be generally light.  

Warm, highs in the low 70's.  Mostly Sunny skies with light winds

Watching a sneaky backdoor cold front.  Will have to watch as it will make a major difference in temperature.  Looks to be dry however, no matter the temp.  

Have a good Monday

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Weekend Weather Take

The forecast for New England in the next 7-10 days is rather boring (for me).  It's great for all spring sports, cook outs, and any outdoor activity.  The one drawback is that pollen counts should begin to rise and that stinks for a lot of people.  However its a part of the natural seasonal cycle and with the pollen comes warmth.  

Short Term Forecast
With high pressure in control today is nice.  Winds will be slightly off the ocean keeping temperatures from soaring into the 70's.
WPC Sutface Analysis 922 am
Cool, dry, and light winds today.  Temperatures will reach the mid 60's across Southern New England
14z RAP 2 m temp 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Temperatures drop into the mid 40's overnight.

The pick of the weekend.  High pressure moves offshore a bit changing the wind direction.  Instead of an easterly component off the water there will be more of southwesterly component.  It will still be off the water but the southern waters are warmer than the east due to the proximity of the gulf stream.
WPC surface forecast 8 am Sunday
That will lead to afternoon temperatures in the upper 60's.
12z NAM hires 2 m temps Sun 3 pm (image weatherbell)
Much the same as Sunday.  Temperatures will fall to the mid-upper 40's Sunday night.  Monday will be in the mid 60's.  This time of year we really have to watch the sea breeze as it could be 49 in Boston but 66 in Worcester.  I'm not expecting this on Monday because the high pressure will be just offshore- it would be difficult to get a wind directly east into Boston.
12z NAM hires 2 m temps Mon 2 pm (image weatherbell)
Long Range Outlook
These two days will be the coolest of the week.  Temperatures will still climb into the upper 50's and low 60's.  The sun will still be out but high pressure is going to mover further offshore.  Colder temperatures in the mid levels will also be in place.  
00z EURO 850 temps, wind vectors Wednesday 8 pm (image weatherbell)
Notice that the winds are off the water on Wednesday (they will on Tuesday as well).  This will put into play the sea breeze effect.  Here are Wednesday afternoon's temps
00z EPS control 2 m temps Wed 2 pm (image weatherbell)
A developing atmospheric block (we had a lot of fun with those this winter) will keep moisture from working into New England.  Here is what that block is forecast to look like at the upper levels of the atmosphere
00z EURO 500 mb height anomalies 
What this shows is high pressure staying put over the east.  Storms are going to try to "break" into the block and this will slowly weaken it.  However on Thursday it will be at its strongest.  Here are the temperatures on Thursday afternoon
00z EPS control 2 m temps Thur PM (image weatherbell)
Friday looks to be around 70 BUT the sea breeze may create a drastic temperature gradient all the way to 495.  I'll monitor throughout the week.  Next Saturday at this point looks to be in the mid to upper 70's.  Have a great weekend!

Friday, April 26, 2013

Weekend Forecast

An upper level disturbance will swing through New England today touching off an isolated shower or storm. The weekend will be top notch with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60's.  Sunday will likely be around 70.  After today's light rain there will be an extended dry period for 7-10 days.  Guidance is hinting at something around day 9-10 coming out of the SW Atlantic and being energized by an upper level system as it moves up the coast.  More on that tomorrow and next week.

Temperatures this morning are chilly especially outside of SE New England.
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
The surface chart looks like we should have a nice day with no precipitation issues
WPC surface analysis 330 am
However cutting in between those two high pressure areas in the East is an upper level feature.  
06z NAM 500 mb vort (image NCEP)
This will kick off light showers that should be mainly north of the Mass Pike between 2-5 PM.  These should be weak. Here is the zoomed in WPC day 1 precipitation outlook
WPC day 1 precip outlook (zoomed in)
Skies stay Partly Cloudy as the disturbance passes by.  Temperatures will be able to climb near 60 in MA and RI, mid 60's in CT
09z RAP 2 m temps 2 PM (image weatherbell)
This evening temperatures will fall into 40's.  No rain like last Friday night so just bring a jacket if one is heading out tonight.  Here are the overnight lows
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 6 am (image weatherbell)
The temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 60's for all of Southern New England.  This is due to the placement of the high pressure.  We will have NW flow, out of Canada
WPC surface forecast 8 am Saturday
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.  Temperatures look like
06z NAM hires 2 m temp Sat 5 pm (image weatherbell)
Low temperatures will drop into the mid 40's Saturday night.  

High pressure will edge off the coast Sunday morning changing the wind direction.  SW flow will take over
WPC Sunday Morning surface forecast
By 2 PM mostly everyone will be near 70
06z NAM hires 2 m temps Sun 2 pm (image weatherbell)
That's all for today, have a great weekend.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Seasonable Weather For Awhile

A weakening cold front is pushing through Southern New England this morning.  The warmth from yesterday is gone, but so is the record cold from Tuesday.  In fact we will be closer to yesterday than the cold of Tuesday for the next week to 10 days.  We seem to have turned the corner towards the second half of Spring.  Meanwhile in the rest of the country here is what the last week has looked like.
Last 7 days NCEP temperature anomaly (image weatherbell)
Some 10,000 cold temperature records have been set in the last six weeks.  It has been as extreme a late season cold shot in decades.  Now if we flipped this around and it was heat it would be plastered all over the national news.  Last summer we were told "this is what global warming looks like" after record heat.  Now I am educated enough in meteorology to recognize that hot/cold temperature records don't mean much of anything but the bias in coverage of warm/cold events is remarkable (but not really if you have followed the debate).

Current Conditions
On the surface chart from a few hours ago we can see the cold front ready to move through New England
WPC surface analysis 330 am
Here is the northeast regional radar
NWS northeast regional radar  520 am
Here are the temperatures.  It is mild out ahead of the boundary
2 m temperatures 4 am (image weatherbell)
Finally there are some gusty winds with the frontal passage
5 am 10 m winds & direction (NCEP)
Short Term Forecast
Skies will be clearing this afternoon and temperatures will shoot up to around 60 degrees.  The rain will be gone by 11 am.  The short range models want to intensify a band of showers that will move into SE MA between 8-10 am.
09z RAP simulated radar 9 am (image weatherbell)
The NAM hires also shows this cluster and monitoring radar trends it seems plausible.  I can't even rule out some thunder and lightning with this convection.

Here are the temperatures at 3 pm
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)
The projected cloud cover around the same time, off the operational NAM
06z NAM op cloud cover 2 pm (image weatherbell)
So whatever forms will be gone and will leave a great afternoon.  Overnight most of us drop into the low 40's.  SE MA, the Cape and Islands will be in the upper 40's.  Friday will feature similar temperatures as today but is a chance of an afternoon shower or thundershower.
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Friday (image weatherbell)
Here is the simulated radar at 5 pm
06z NAM hires simulated radar 5 pm Friday (image weatherbell)
The weekend looks great.  Temperatures in the mid 60's with no precipitation.  Here is the 5 day precipitation outlook for the US.  Whatever falls in New England will do so today or tomorrow
WPC 5 day precipitation outlook
Finally lets take a look at the year to date temperature anomaly (departure from average red-warmer than avg blue- colder than avg)
NCEP year to date temp anomalies (image Weatherbell)
This would be one hell of signal to take into Hurricane Season.
4.22.2013 sea surface temp anomaly (OSPO)
Weekend Forecast
Low temperature Friday night will be around 40. On Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 60's.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40's.  On Sunday expect mid to upper 60's.  A few locations may see 70.  From the EURO ensemble 
00z EURO EPS mean 2 m temps Sunday afternoon (image weatherbell)
Some clouds may build Sunday afternoon but not expecting precip- see above

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