Temperatures Climb into 60's Today

A cold front will stall over Southern New England for the next several days and this will led to some interesting weather.  A series of low pressure waves will ride along the boundary giving us a few shots of showers and thunderstorms in the upcoming period.  Today should stay dry and temperatures will rise into the mid 60's.  Tonight a wave of low pressure will move out of the Great Lakes with upper level support and track across Central New England.  That system should clear by mid Tuesday morning leaving another warm day.  Another wave will move into New England Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Current Conditions/Observations

First check out the watches/warnings for all of the United States

National Weather Service Watches/Warnings

A deep trough is digging into the west which will eject a major spring storm into the Northern Plains

06z NAM 250 mb jet (NCEP)

Notice the purple contour racing down the west coast.  This will really deepen the trough and in turn help to raise heights in the east thus increasing our temperatures for a few days.  Here is the resulting 500 mb pattern

06z NAM 500 mb vorticitiy (NCEP)

A storm will form in the Great Basin of Utah.  The max over Iowa is the system that will move into New England tonight.  Here is the current surface

WPC surface analysis 330 am

I've circled the systems that I've shown on the upper level maps.  Here are the temperatures

4 am temps (image weatherbell)

At 4 am the average temperature in MA was 42 degrees.  Most of us from Springfield to Worcester and east are in the mid to upper 40's already. 

Short Range Forecast

The boundary near New England will not move much today.  

WPC 2 pm surface forecast

This will allow for temperatures to to pump into the 60's

08z RAP 2 m temps 5 pm (image weatherbell)

Notice the extreme temperature gradient in New England this afternoon.  Winds remain fairly light, but with low pressure moving into a baroclinic graident (temperature) like this some thunderstorms will fire overnight.  

06z NAM Hires simulated radar (image weatherbell)

This is will help lift the warm front further North on Tuesday and so Tuesday will be warmer than today

WPC Tuesday 8 am surface forecast

Temperatures

00z EURO 2 m temps Tues Afternoon (image weatherbell)

This could be underdone slightly, but a nice band of 70 degree temps show up SW of Boston.  Winds will pick up a bit more on Tuesday as well.  The SPC has a highlighted parts of New England in the thunderstorm risk overnight tonight

SPC day 1 outlook (8 am Mon-8am Tues)

Another shot of storms Wednesday Morning 

06z NAM hires simulated radar 5 am Wed (image weatherbell)

Here is the SPC outlook tomorrow 8 pm-Wednesday 8 pm

SPC day 3 outlook 

Wednesday temps will be around 60.  I need to wait a bit longer to be sure if Wednesday is the transitional day or if Thursday is.  Wednesday could also be around 70, but we'll chat about that tomorrow.  A cold drenching rain looks likely on Friday.  Have a good start to the week.