Seasonable Weather For Awhile

A weakening cold front is pushing through Southern New England this morning.  The warmth from yesterday is gone, but so is the record cold from Tuesday.  In fact we will be closer to yesterday than the cold of Tuesday for the next week to 10 days.  We seem to have turned the corner towards the second half of Spring.  Meanwhile in the rest of the country here is what the last week has looked like.

Last 7 days NCEP temperature anomaly (image weatherbell)

Some 10,000 cold temperature records have been set in the last six weeks.  It has been as extreme a late season cold shot in decades.  Now if we flipped this around and it was heat it would be plastered all over the national news.  Last summer we were told "this is what global warming looks like" after record heat.  Now I am educated enough in meteorology to recognize that hot/cold temperature records don't mean much of anything but the bias in coverage of warm/cold events is remarkable (but not really if you have followed the debate).

Current Conditions

On the surface chart from a few hours ago we can see the cold front ready to move through New England

WPC surface analysis 330 am

Here is the northeast regional radar

NWS northeast regional radar  520 am

Here are the temperatures.  It is mild out ahead of the boundary

2 m temperatures 4 am (image weatherbell)

Finally there are some gusty winds with the frontal passage

5 am 10 m winds & direction (NCEP)

Short Term Forecast

Skies will be clearing this afternoon and temperatures will shoot up to around 60 degrees.  The rain will be gone by 11 am.  The short range models want to intensify a band of showers that will move into SE MA between 8-10 am.

09z RAP simulated radar 9 am (image weatherbell)

The NAM hires also shows this cluster and monitoring radar trends it seems plausible.  I can't even rule out some thunder and lightning with this convection.

Here are the temperatures at 3 pm

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)

The projected cloud cover around the same time, off the operational NAM

06z NAM op cloud cover 2 pm (image weatherbell)

So whatever forms will be gone and will leave a great afternoon.  Overnight most of us drop into the low 40's.  SE MA, the Cape and Islands will be in the upper 40's.  Friday will feature similar temperatures as today but is a chance of an afternoon shower or thundershower.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 pm Friday (image weatherbell)

Here is the simulated radar at 5 pm

06z NAM hires simulated radar 5 pm Friday (image weatherbell)

The weekend looks great.  Temperatures in the mid 60's with no precipitation.  Here is the 5 day precipitation outlook for the US.  Whatever falls in New England will do so today or tomorrow

WPC 5 day precipitation outlook

Finally lets take a look at the year to date temperature anomaly (departure from average red-warmer than avg blue- colder than avg)

NCEP year to date temp anomalies (image Weatherbell)

This would be one hell of signal to take into Hurricane Season.

4.22.2013 sea surface temp anomaly (OSPO)

Weekend Forecast

Low temperature Friday night will be around 40. On Saturday expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 60's.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40's.  On Sunday expect mid to upper 60's.  A few locations may see 70.  From the EURO ensemble 

00z EURO EPS mean 2 m temps Sunday afternoon (image weatherbell)

Some clouds may build Sunday afternoon but not expecting precip- see above