High Fire Danger Today

Can you believe that after all that snow and precipitation since February 1st there would be a high risk for fire today?  That is the weather headline for today.  Low humidity and high gusty winds have prompted the National Weather Service in Taunton to issue a Special Weather Statement.  There is also a "Red Flag Warning" for much of the Mid Atlantic, including CT

NWS Red Flag Warning's

New England (with the exception of CT) is slightly less vulnerable to fire than these regions, but the threat still exists.  Fire will be the biggest threat until some rain works in during the middle of next week.

Current Conditions

WPC surface analysis 330 am

High pressure is in control centered over the Ohio Valley.  Winds are out of the northwest, allowing for cold dry Canadian air to filter into the Northeast.  Tremendous moisture is available for the Southeast as they will get dumped on in the next several days.  

2 m temperatures 3 am (image weatherbell)

Temperatures range from the low teens in Northern Maine to the upper 20's/low 30's in Southern New England.  Winds are still gusty so its going to feel downright cold this morning on the way to work/class.

4 am 10 m wind speeds (NCEP)

Finally here are the dew points

4 am 2 m dew points (NCEP)

As you can see these are extremely dry.  Relative humidity will be low this afternoon, hence the fire danger.

Short Term Forecast

High temperatures will be around 40-44 for most of us today with no precipitation

08z RAP 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)

Winds will be increasing this afternoon

06z NAM 10 m winds, mslp (image weatherbell)

This is for 5 PM EST.  Winds should be sustained around 15-20 mph with gusts of 30-35.  This will potentially blow over some trash cans, hockey nets, lawn chairs etc.  It will also take a small fire and make it a large one very quickly.

Tomorrow the temperature rebounds into the low 50's and the winds relax.  The wind will be more from the west, rather than the northwest.  This wind shift will help dew points rise a bit but the fire threat will linger.  A large system will pass just offshore on Friday.  Rainfall should be confined to SE MA but a slight shift would bring heavier rain further north.  Here is the 5 day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

WPC 5 day precipitation totals 

Its the opposite of winter; everywhere else (besides the SW) is getting dumped on this time around.  I still see 70 next week so keep the faith.  Have a good day talk to you tomorrow.