Gray Skies to Clear, Warm Afternoon

Low pressure is pulling away from Southern New England and with that a wind shift will occur bringing warm temps to the region today.  A cold front will fall apart as it reaches SNE tonight but it will none the less have an effect as temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 50's.

Observations/Short Term Forecast
The radar shows just light rain in Eastern MA
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 540 am
Here is the surface chart.  You can see the low and the cold front on this map
WPC surface analysis 330 am
Here are the temperatures as of 4 am
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
Here is the wind direction this morning.  Notice how it is out of the north and east.
06z NAM 10 m wind and direction 2 am (image weatherbell)
Now here is the wind direction this afternoon.  Notice how the vectors are now from the south and west.
06z NAM 10 m wind and direction 2 pm (image weatherbell)
The cause of this is the cold front and pushing east and high pressure is building in the Carolina's.  This will push the low further out to sea and its influence will wane.  The high pressure will take over (remember air flows clockwise around a high, counter clockwise around a low).  The result is temperatures like this
08z RAP 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Guidance is in good agreement on temperatures with the exception of Maine.  My worries yesterday about the backdoor cold front still hold for Northern New England.  Southern New England should be fine.  I would wear a jacket if going to Fenway this afternoon because you never know in April- wind direction is key.  One can pick out where the cold front will be at 4 pm in the image above.  Here is the simulated radar for 9 pm
06z NAM hires simulated radar 9 pm (image weatherbell)
Looks ominous right?  Here is the simulated radar for 1 am
06z NAM hires simulated radar 1 am (image weatherbell)
By tomorrow morning the surface should look like this, with the cold front off the coast and high pressure in charge again
WPC surface forecast 8 am
On Thursday it will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today.  Yesterday I called it a roller coaster ride.  Yesterday 45, today 70, tomorrow 57.  Typical New England weather
06z NAM hires 5 pm Thur (image weatherbell)
There may be some rain Friday, especially in Western regions.  I'll eye that more tomorrow, have a good day.


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