End of Week Forecast

I apologize for not posting in several days.  Being in Boston on Monday shook me a bit, even though I was far enough away from the chaos.  Soon, maybe even today, the national media circus will die down and leave town for the next story.  The city, the region, and our people will be the ones left to support each other.  I have no doubt we will.  There have been "worse" attacks in terms of death (9/11, OKC bomb etc) but the real damage was this attack is how, where, and when they did it.  We will come together on April 21, 2014 to support the Boston Marathon in full force but it will be different.  Patriot's Day forever carries new meaning to the city, as does April 15. As I type I'm watching images of Waco, TX.  God that looks awful, RIP to the deceased, prayers to the injured and the first response units.

Observations

WPC surface analysis 716 am

A potent cold frontal system is moving through the central part of the country this morning.  This system is driven by a sharp trough at 500 mb

06z NAM 500 mb vorticity (NCEP)

Later today a moderate severe weather threat will exist in much of the Mississippi River Valley (Northern part and Southern part) and eventually the Ohio Valley

SPC 1  day outlook

Here in New England we will see some rain/thunderstorms from this on Saturday morning.  Currently in New England temperatures are off to a cool start

New England 2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)

Today temperatures will rebound to near 60

09z RAP 2 m temps 3 pm (image weatherbell)

Winds will gust over 25 MPH this afternoon and this evening

09z RAP mslp, max wind gust 6 PM (image weatherbell)

There is some rain showing up on the Northeast radar this morning to our west

NWS Northeast regional radar

A trough of low pressure is present along the NY/Canada border

NOAA GOES_E water vapor satellite 545 am 

This will move north into Canada.  Even Northern New England should be spared.  Here is the EURO for 8 pm tonight

00z EURO 6 hr precip 8 pm (image weatherbell)

The reason for this is a shift north of the jet stream as shown here by the 06z NAM

06z NAM 250 mb winds (NCEP)

With a ridge like that over the east one would expect a warm Friday.  It will be, but the cold front will also be pushing east.  While the rain stays out of New England the winds will really start to increase.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Friday 5 pm (image weatherbell)

The winds at the 900 mb level (we are at 1010 or so)

06z NAM 900 mb winds 8 pm Friday (image weatherbell)

That cold front will push through early Saturday morning through about noon time.  WPC likes this for 3 day rain totals

WPC 3 day precipitation totals 

More on this system in my next post.  Have a good day everyone.