Warmer Today, Fire Danger Remains

Although it will be less windy, warmer, and more humid today than yesterday an elevated fire risk still exists for New England. A rain system will pass to our south and east tomorrow which will help to keep temperatures in the 50's.  A brief warm up is expected early next week, as well as a threat of rain.

Current Conditions/Observations
Regional 2 m temps 5 am (image weatherbell)
Once again we start off cold in the Northeast.  The average low in Worcester for the date is 33; its currently 26.  The radar is quiet in the Northeast (unlike California and the Southeast) so lets look at the surface chart

WPC surface analysis 330 am
The low in the Gulf is responsible for the Southeastern precipitation.  A storm system is also ready to smash into California.  A rather weak system is located in South Dakota.  High pressure in the Ohio Valley will help to steer the SE system out to sea.  The 500 mb pattern looks like this
06z NAM 500 mb vort valid 5 am (NCEP)
A max is digging through Texas providing upper level support for our system in the Gulf of Mexico.  The flow also takes any system well offshore.  Here is the jet stream at the same time
06z NAM 250 mb winds, valid 5 am (NCEP)
A strong jet streak (dark blue and gray?) offshore is helping to raise heights high enough to warm things up a little bit today.

Short Term Forecast
Temperatures slowly rise throughout the day.  By noon everyone is close to 50.  Here is what I expect for afternoon highs, based off the RAP
09z RAP 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)
Winds will relax and be out of the west southwest
06z NAM 10 m winds, MSLP valid 5 pm (image weatherbell)
Throughout most of the day winds will be light, around 6-10 mph.  By later this afternoon the winds will increase to 10-15 mph.  

On Friday expect temperatures to be slightly warmer than today.  
00z EURO 2 m max temps Friday PM (image weatherbell)
Winds will shift on Friday afternoon due to the passage of a coastal storm and a cold front pushing in
WPC Friday 8 pm forecast
Winds will also increase
06z NAM 10 m winds, mslp Friday 5 pm (image weatherbell)
This isn't an Arctic front so temperatures will not drop back into the low 40's this weekend.  Each day will be in the low to mid 50's.  Any precipitation holds until Sunday night.  Here is the 5 day precip forecast from the WPC
WPC 5 day precip totals
Very little for Eastern New England.  I'm looking at the warm up on Monday and Tuesday as well as some nocturnal thunderstorm activity Monday night into Tuesday- we'll cover that in the next post.  Have a good day.


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