Persistent Pattern Leads to Mild Dry Weather

In general the next week to two weeks will be dry and mild in Southern New England.  A developing block will keep high pressure in charge.  Wind direction is the most important factor in determining temperature this week.  Any easterly wind will keep temperatures down and correspondingly a wind out of the west will be warmer.

Current Conditions/Observations
A weakening upper air disturbance has generated some lift in the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley and the result is widespread showers in these regions.  Low pressure is also working northeast out of the Carolina's.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 528 am
One can see these features well on the water vapor satellite 
Goes_E Water Vapor satellite 515 am (NOAA)
On the surface chart the we can see the high pressure to the east of New England better
WPC surface analysis 330 am
Here is the 500 mb chart showing the ridge over New England and the trough that extends just along the Appalachians.  
06z NAM 500 mb vort valid 8 am (NCEP)
That is the atmospheric big picture.  Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 40's in Southern New England 
5 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)
It's already 50 in extreme SW CT.  Interestingly this is where it will likely be the coolest this afternoon.  The rain will struggle to get into New England.  SW CT and Western MA is where there is a good chance of precipitation today.  Temperatures will rise into the upper 60's in Southeastern NE
09z RAP 2 m temps 2 pm (image weatherbell)
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 1 day rainfall forecast looks like this
WPC 1 day precipitation outlook
Similar weather. Temps in the mid to upper 60's.  Skies will clear Tuesday afternoon and this will last into Wednesday. Winds will be generally light.  

Warm, highs in the low 70's.  Mostly Sunny skies with light winds

Watching a sneaky backdoor cold front.  Will have to watch as it will make a major difference in temperature.  Looks to be dry however, no matter the temp.  

Have a good Monday


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