Weekly Southern New England Outlook

As a cold front helped push a coastal low offshore yesterday, the winds flipped from southwesterly flow to northwesterly flow.  The winds will continue to be strong today and it will feel like early November.  Sunday is slightly better but not by much.  I think I misled some people yesterday with my headline; its not a pretty decent weekend with this Arctic wind.  But at least its not April 6-7, 1982

April 6-7 1982 snow from NESIS

This is off the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (combines snow totals and affected population) and as you can see most of MA (excludes SE MA) received over 10 inches.  As the National Weather Service in Taunton said yesterday, Worcester has received a foot of snow as late as May 9 so I can't 100% rule out snow but I'm 99% sure accumulating snow is done (South of Pike).  If you hate me for mentioning this, its going to be 70 on Tuesday.

Current Conditions/Observations

Current temps are slowly moderating, but most locations are still in the upper 20's/low 30's.  

2 m temps 7 am (image weatherbell)

Here are the 10 m sustained winds

10 m winds 8 am (image NCEP)

Dew points are also low

2 m dew point 8 am (image NCEP)

With dew points in the single digits and teens, a stiff wind out of the northwest and sunny skies it comes as no surprise that there is a significant fire threat today.  The NWS has issued Red Flag Warnings for parts of the region.

NWS Boston Red Flag Warning's 

Even those of you in RI/CT should call your fire department before burning anything.  It won't take much for a small fire to become a big one. 

Short Range Forecast

WPC surface analysis 630 am

High pressure is in control over the Great Lakes which is why our wind is out of the Northwest (clockwise air flow around a high).  

11z RAP 2 m temp 4 pm (image weatherbell)

SW CT may hit 50 today.  Elsewhere we are in the upper 40's.  Here are the wind gusts at 2 PM

11z RAP mslp and wind gust 2 pm (image weatherbell)

This is in knots, so I expect wind gusts of 25-30 mph early this afternoon.  They should die down a bit this evening.  Tonight's low temps will be at or just below freezing in Southern New England.  

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)

If this isn't the last morning below freezing its close.  There aren't many left anyway.  Sunday is a bit warmer than today but we are facing a few scattered showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening.  If you look back at the surface chart I posted, you see low pressure driving a warm front northeastward towards New England.  The NAM hires likes an isolated shower around 9 am tomorrow so heads up if you are out and about.  Later in the day a few thunderstorm cells may try to develop.  

06z NAM hires Sunday 5 PM simulated radar (image weatherbell)

Temperatures will look like this

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Sunday 2 PM (image weatherbell)

Given the marginal surface temps this may be just some gusty showers.   None the less tomorrow afternoon looks ok if you need to be outside to get things done.  Winds will be brisk as the warm front pushes through

06z NAM 10 m winds, mslp Sunday 5 pm (image weatherbell)

The WPC is not impressed with the idea of rain tomorrow.  My feeling is that this map is mostly correct, but will be wrong in isolated areas.

WPC 2 day precipitation totals

Extend Range Discussion

I have to give some props to the EURO monthlies from the week of March 11-17.  They showed a brief shot of 65-70 for the second week of April after weeks of below average cold.  Here are the last two weeks

NCEP 2 week analyzed temp anomaly (image Dr. Ryan Maue, weatherbell)

A two day warm up will not break this, but there are signs that within the next two weeks the pattern flips for a bit and a ridge develops in the east, a trough develops in the west.  However that is out of sight out of mind for now.  Here is the forecast temps for Monday off the EURO Control

12z 4/5 EURO control 2 m temp Monday afternoon (image weatherbell)

Some precipitation will fall overnight Monday into Tuesday as low pressure rides the thermal gradient.  I can see some thunderstorms developing off of this wave.  This will make temperatures tricky for Tuesday but I still believe all of Southern New England is in the upper 60's low 70's

12z 4/5/13 EURO 2 m temp Tuesday aftn (image weatherbell)

With a temperature gradient in New England like that, one should expect some precipitation.  Wednesday looks ok, temps will be back in the mid to upper 50's.  Thursday looks cold, as in low 40's for high temperatures.  Friday looks miserable.  Southern New England gets a cold raw rain, while Northern New England sees a heavy wet snow.   Here is the 7 day precipitation and snow forecast

WPC 7 day precip totals

And the Euro Ensemble Control snow

12z EPS control 4/5/13 snowfall outlook

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30's for Southern New England so it isn't a stretch for some areas in SNE to mix with snow and/or a few inches in Northern Worcester County.  Seems like a typical New England forecast....cold, warm, windy, thunderstorms, snow.  Have a good Saturday.  I'll update the shower/tstorm forecast tomorrow morning.