A coastal low will develop along a frontal boundary on Thursday. A developing tropical disturbance in the Bahama's will contribute some moisture into this system. Rain begins to the west of the region tomorrow and some of these will work into Western New England tomorrow afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain will fall on Friday when temperatures will be mild (though not like today). Temperatures return to normal on Saturday as rain tappers but the wind will be breezy (up to 35 MPH).
General Overview
Here is what we expect the surface chart to look at 8 PM tonight. High pressure is still in control across Southern New England. Waves of low pressure will ride along the Ohio River producing showers and thunderstorms.
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| WPC Surface forecast Wed 8 PM |
That high will keep temperatures down in the upper 40's tonight in interior Southern New England. Low's will still be near 50/low 50's in South Coastal New England.
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| NWS Minimum temps Wed night (image Weatherbell) |
Our next weather system will continue to move east tomorrow. High pressure will shift offshore and the winds will flip back to the S/SW. More humid air and cloudy skies will follow. Temperatures will max in the mid 60's.
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| NWS maximum temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell) |
Here is the projected surface chart tomorrow afternoon.
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| WPC Surface forecast Thursday 2 PM |
Although this chart shows a chance of rain in Southern New England it should remain to our west. The whole mess will shift east Thursday PM however so around 8-9 PM most of Southern New England will begin to see showers. A spot shower or sprinkle is certainly possible from noon on everywhere but afternoon plans should be fine. The bulk of the moisture moves in Friday AM.
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| WPC Surface Forecast Friday 8 AM |
As of 8 AM Friday there still will be multiple low pressure centers. During the day Friday this will consolidate into one main center and it will start to strengthen. By Friday evening it should be over or right near Long Island.
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| WPC Surface Forecast 8 PM Friday |
Complicating matters is a tropical disturbance in the Bahama's. It may or may not become a named system (it will be Otto) but it will enhance precipitation on Friday. Here is the the projected 5 day track of the tropical disturbance.
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| NHC 5 day formation potential/track |
The system is forecast to stay well out to sea but it will increase rainfall potential for Eastern New England. Here is one high resolution model for Friday night. If this is correct (and I think it is or I wouldn't show it) a lot of football games will be wet or moved.
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| 18z NAM hires simulated radar Friday 8 PM (image Tropical Tidbits) |
We get more rain if the system tracks closer to the coast and the rain would hold on into Saturday. While I don't think this will happen it is possible. Most likely a general 1-2" of rain with a few higher amounts is likely before the low pulls away Saturday AM. Rain will come to an end in the morning and the wind will pick up. Temperatures are in the upper 50's on Saturday PM but with the wind it will feel brisk.
Flurries overnight Sat into Sun AM?
A return to typical fall weather is in store for next week.
-Zack Green
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