Summer Like Warmth for SNE

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will continue through Wednesday before some welcome rain arrives Thursday and Friday.  In several locations across the Northeast temperatures will approach record territory.  This weather pattern has already produced the highest October temperature on record in Dodge City, KS (and numerous other record daily highs).

Why so warm?
At the surface a strong Western Atlantic area of high pressure has lifted the jet stream well above its normal mid October position.  This means most of the Eastern half of the US has south to southwesterly flow.  At the same time in the upper level of the atmosphere a dome of high pressure exists over the Northern Gulf of Mexico pumping warm air into the US.  First the upper air chart
06z NAM 500 mb vort, heights 8 am Tues (image NCEP)

Now here is the surface chart.
WPC surface analysis 2 AM
That boundary in New England will separate warm and cool today.  One side of the boundary is in the 80's while the other side is in the 50's.  This boundary will descend into NE MA this AM before lifting out this afternoon.  This boundary is responsible for the isolated showers that were around earlier this AM.  Skies will clear and winds will be light out of the south today (5-10 MPH).  Here are the forecast max temps
NWS max temp forecast Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
The circled locations will be within 1 degree of a record high.  Here are the records for today and tomorrow in SNE
Southern New England record high temps
A cold front will approach tonight but it will not have much precipitation with it.  Wednesday may be the warmer of the two days but look what is on the way for Thursday.
WPC Surface fronts Thursday 8 AM
Precipitation will linger through Friday evening as low pressure will develop and pull some tropical downpours north.   Saturday will clear and be cooler but there will also be some gusty winds behind Fridays low pressure passage.  I'll post an update tomorrow evening for the Thursday-Sunday forecast.  Enjoy your Tuesday.

-Zack Green

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