Update on Thursday Precipitation

Overnight lows in the upper 20's will give way to rain and snow in the New England.  Most of the snow is in the higher elevations of Western and Northern New England but even Central Mass should see a few flakes before switching over to all rain.  No accumulation is expected but if you are in the Leominster-Springfield-Hartford regions the roads may be slick.  "Warmer" air will make this a rain storm for Southern New England Thursday PM into Friday AM when 0.5-1.5" (locally higher) will fall.

General Overview
High pressure in Ontario will keep this cold air mass in place tonight.  Low will drop into the mid 20's.  Urban areas, the immediate coast, and anywhere that gets wind off the ocean.  The Atlantic is still in the upper 50's so that will keep temperatures in the mid 30's.
NWS Minimum Temperature forecast Wednesday-Thursday (Image Weatherbell)
High temperatures today maxed in the 40's.  That is 10-13 degrees below average for this time of year.  However both systems move east overnight.  First here is what the lower level of the atmosphere will look like at 2 AM tonight.
WPC Surface Forecast Thursday 8 AM
As the low moves east snow will begin to fly in Eastern NY and Western New England.  However the high will hold strong early tomorrow.  Precipitation will likely hold off through 8 AM.  Here is the simulated radar for that time.
21z HRRR simulated radar Thursday 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
That means most of the AM commute is fine.  Temperatures will rise into the 40's by 11 AM so any snow flakes will have to mix in before then.
21z HRRR 2 m temperatures Thursday 11 AM (Image Weatherbell)
By Thursday evening it will be raining steadily in Southern New England.  The original low will give way to a new surface low along the New England coast Thursday night into Friday.  As that happens a band of heavy rain will set up across the region.  Notice the low near Buffalo at this hour.
18z NAM Hires Simulated Radar Thursday 8 PM (image Tropical Tidbits)
By 8 AM it has reformed near Cape Cod and most of the precipitation is pulling away into Northern New England.
18z NAM hires simulated radar 8 AM Friday (image Tropical Tidbits)
Temperatures will be in the 50's Friday AM.  Overall I expect 0.75-1.5" of rain but a few localized spots will see more.  October has been a wonderful month for the drought although I do need to correct an item from my Saturday AM blog Wicked Rain Overwhelms SNE.  At the time of writing I was unaware that Jacob Goulet of Nashua, NH fell into a storm drain and was swept away.  My apologies and condolences to those who knew/loved Jacob.

-Zack Green


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