Great Fall Weather for SNE, Major Hurricane for Florida

Knowing that many people have family and property in Florida I will continue to cover Matthew even though the storm will remain far to our south.  If it manages to make official landfall then Matthew will be the first major hurricane to hit the United States since Wilma in 2005.  The last category 4 hurricane to hit the US was Charley in 2004.  High pressure is protecting SNE the next few days from Matthew and high temperatures in the 50's so let's talk about that first.

General Overview
The atmosphere has been delivering warm days and cool nights and that will continue through Friday.  Here is the temperatures in the northeast as of 5 AM
RTMA 2 m temps 5 AM Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Here is surface analysis from 5 AM.  See the low pressure system in Saskatchewan/Manitoba in S Canada?  That was the upper system that I thought would pick Matthew up and send it towards New England (either a direct hit or passing south and east and delivering beneficial rain.  The Hurricane moved too slow and the trough is too far north so they will not connect.
WPC Surface Analysis 5 AM Thursday 
Thanks to that dome of high pressure max temperatures today will be in the low 70's with sunny skies.
NWS 2 m max temp forecast Thursday (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures tonight will again drop into the 40's.  High pressure is in control tomorrow so expect temperatures closer to 75 as that cold front approaches for Saturday.  Friday night is mild as clouds begin to increase.  A few showers are possible on Saturday.
WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM
Hurricane Matthew
It's not a pretty scene in the Bahama's this morning.  According to The Weather Channel at least 25 people are dead so far in the Caribbean.  Here are some photo's of the damage in East Cuba that was leveled.
Baracoa, Cuba damage from Matthew (photo- Miami Herland, Ramon Espinosa AP)
Baracoa, Cuba damage from Matthew (photo Miami Herald Ramon Espinosa AP)
This morning the Hurricane is ripping through the Bahama's.  Winds are at 125 mph and central pressure is down to 944 mb.  This makes Matthew a powerful Category 3 (nearly Category 4) hurricane.
NHC Atlantic 5 AM track, warnings, storm information 
While it is important to track the center of the storm because that is where the category 3/4 winds are the overall tropical storm force wind field is large.  The impacts extend a long way out from the center.  Melbourne and Daytona, FL north to Jacksonville should see the strongest winds and storm surge but many others will deal with rain, down trees, power loss and flooding.
NHC Atlantic wind field chart
You can just now see Matthew on radar.  The outer bands are already impacting the east coast of Florida.
NWS Southeast Regional Radar 
Here is the simulated radar for 7 PM tonight.  This looks nasty for the Fort Lauderdale, West Palm, and Port St. Lucie.
08z HRRR simulated radar Thursday 7 PM (image Weatherbell)

The bottom line is Florida is going to take one on the chin and its been many years since people had to deal with a storm like this.

-Zack Green


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