Weekend Weather Take 5/5/2013

Our extended dry stretch will last until the middle/end of this week.  High pressure will finally relax its grip on New England and allow a storm system to move up the coast.  This will bring beneficial rain to New England.  It also appears to be a pattern change as I see multiple rain chances in the 5-15 day range.  Temperatures will remain seasonable through Wednesday but will drop on Thursday with the rain.

Current Conditions/Observations
Temperatures dipped into the low to mid 30's last night.  As of 7 am it was still very chilly in New England

7 am 2 m temps (image weatherbell)

As has been the case lately the radar is quiet

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 740 am

High pressure is deflecting low pressure systems above and below New England. On the surface chart

WPC surface analysis 626 am

This shows up nice on the water vapor loop.  The water vapor loop measures the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.  It is a very useful tool see more info on satellites here.  

GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite 815 am (NOAA)

Two low pressure systems are soaking portions of the Southeast this morning. These are associated with an upper level low that will make its way to New England on Wednesday.  

NWS Southeast Regional Radar 848 am

Here is the storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, from last night's EURO run

00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly Sat PM (image weatherbell)

Ridging over the top of New England which is why high pressure is control here.  There is good upper level support for the Southern system.  With this set up, here is the forecast for the next several days

Short Term Forecast

By noon temperatures will be in the low 60's across much of SNE.  Extreme Western MA (Berkshires) may be close to 70 by then as they will not feel the effect of the Easterly wind

11z RAP 2 m temp 12 pm (image weatherbell)

None the less mostly everyone warms into the mid to upper 60's by this afternoon.  The exception will be the immediate coast from Brideport, CT to York, ME and beyond.

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 pm (image weatherbell)

The overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30's (SW CT) to low 40's (elsewhere).  By tomorrow morning the system in the Southeast will have made little progress.

WPC surface forecast 8 am Monday

The result will be heavy rain in the Carolina's,  Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Northern MS, GA, and AL.  Here is the 3 day rainfall total

WPC 3 day precipitation outlook through Wednesday AM

Our temperatures will be nice on Monday.  Highs will be right around 70

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Monday 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Monday night will be around 50 for most. Western MA and NW CT will be cooler, as will NW Worcester County call it mid 40's for those locations.  The storm system will still be off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.

06z NAM hires simulated radar Tuesday 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Temperatures should soar into the mid to upper 70's on Tuesday

06z NAM hires 2 m temps Tues 2 pm (image weatherbell)

Medium Range Forecast

Wednesday is a bit tricky.  Northern New England I fully expect to be near 80.  However with the low finally working towards New England on Wednesday I do think some moisture arrives later Wednesday afternoon in Southern New England.  At the very least clouds should hold temperatures down from say Springfield to Worcester to Boston and south.  Here is what the WPC (and I agree, which is why I use it) thinks for Wednesday morning

WPC day 3 surface forecast

At 500 mb the storm is weaker than it is today, but still enough to generate precipitation in Southern New England

00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly, Weds PM (image weatherbell)

Here are the EURO ensemble temperatures.  I like to use ensemble temperature forecasts when in doubt

00z EPS 2 m temp Wed PM (image weatherbell)

The low is just offshore by Thursday morning

WPC day 4 surface forecast

I am anticipating close to an inch of rain for most of SNE.  Southeastern New England (Boston to Worcester and South) will likely see a little over an inch.  Some leftover showers are likely into Friday.

WPC day 4-5 precipitation forecast

A cold front will not allow this system to stall near New England.  However it will push more rain through on Saturday.  Temperatures should be in the 60's Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Most of Massachusetts is in a slight drought

MA drought Monitor

This will be worse when updated on Tuesday.  However we will get relief in the long range.  Almost all of RI and CT are in the same boat.  Just for fun here is the 16 day precipitation outlook.  Please remember there are large errors in the long range.

00z EPS control 16 day total precip (image weatherbell)

One of the more impressive meteorology events I've seen in a long time happened Thursday-Friday in the Midwest.  Here are the snowfall totals from a record shattering event

Snowfall totals, IA, MN, WI (NWS Twin Cities)

State records were established in MN, IA, and WI fore greatest May snow on record.  Some of these records were set 75-100 years ago.  Many record lows were established in the last few weeks.  

NCEP 2 week temp anomaly (image weatherbell)

US tornadoes are way down as its been too cold for twisters.  The good news is that between May 2012-April 2013 the US set a record for fewest tornado deaths since August 1899-July 1900. More tomorrow, have a good Sunday.