Warm Front to Lift Through Region This Evening

I believed this warm front would lift through the region this morning.  That makes today's forecast...

I forecasted sunny and 75 today and instead temperatures reached the upper 50's and skies remained mostly cloudy.  I expected the warm front to get up into Middlesex County.  The warm front is finally moving through Massachusetts as of 5 PM.  You will certainly notice a difference in the air mass from earlier today if you step outside this evening.  Northeasterly flow off the Gulf of Maine was able to hold the warm front at bay until the cold front and associated low pressure moved close enough to help lift it northward.
WPC Surface Analysis Monday 5 PM 
The same storm system that is responsible for 18 deaths and hundreds of injuries is now causing mayhem in the Mid-Atlantic and the interior Northeast.   There is a tornado and heavy rain threat from Carolina's to Vermont.  The tornadoes get most of the headlines but flooding in Missouri is at all-time record levels.  Spring is a fascinating season meteorologically speaking, however often times these fascinating storms cause death and destruction that far surpasses any beauty that they may possess.   This is why I prefer blockbuster winter snowstorms.  Accidents do happen in winter storms but usually, clean-up involves

  • Snowplow/shovel/snow blow driveway
  • Shovel/snowplow sidewalk
  • Throw down ice melt
  • pouring a whiskey
Clean up after a tornado or flood involves dumpsters, piles of debris, property damage, and too often body bags.  We won't be worrying about those things in Southern New England tonight, but let's keep our fellow American's in our thoughts and prayers tonight.  

General Overview
The fascinating aspect of these storms comes in radar images like this.  The bowing segments are capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 708 PM
Another spectacular image is the infrared rainbow satellite loop.  You can see the parent cyclone moving into the Great Lakes.  This will allow for a severe weather threat in Northern New England this evening where the best forcing will be.
GOES_East Rainbow IR loop (NOAA/NWS/NCEP)
The warm front will be well into Central New England by 2 AM.  That means we can open the windows right?
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 2 AM
I would advise against that.  There may be some showers around midnight, but the best chance is between 2-4 AM across Southern New England.  The best chances for thunder and lightning and far Western MA into Southern VT, but most everyone will get wet.
22z HRRR Simulated Radar Tuesday 3 AM (image Weatherbell)
Some showers may linger across the region for tomorrow morning's commute.  A few rumbles of thunder will be possible even in the Hartford-Worcester-Boston corridor,  
22z HRRR Simulated Radar Tuesday 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
There will be a few afternoon showers Tuesday when a secondary front crosses Mid-Afternoon.   This front will lower dew points and temperatures.  Before we get to that temperatures will max in the low 70's.  
NWS Maximum Temperatures Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Enjoy this.  Those blues in Upstate New York will be our high temperatures on Wednesday.
NWS Maximum Temperatures Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
Strong winds and 1-2"+ of rain are still in the forecast Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.  My focus has turned to this system and I will have a blog up tomorrow night or Wednesday morning.

Thanks for reading.

-Zack Green


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