More Rounds of Rain/Thunder Possible

Although some more rain and thunder will work its way up the coast the threat for Southern New England appears much less than yesterday.  A tornado has been confirmed in Windsor, CT making it the second confirmed tornado in Southern New England in 2013.  It is warm this morning
2 m temps 4 am (image weatherbell)
Dew Points again remain in the upper 60's/low 70's
2 m dew points 5 am (image NCEP)
Our connection with the tropics remains.  Here is the water vapor satellite.  One thing I notice is that the boundary is back further to the west today as the trough in the Midwest has retrograded somewhat.  The tropical plume seems less active today than yesterday although it is early
GOES_East Water Vapor Satellite Image 515 am (NOAA)
The radar has action in Northern New England, the Mid Atlantic, and off the Carolina/VA coasts
NWS Boston Northeast Regional Radar 558 am
Any downpours that do develop will have plenty of moisture to work with.  PWATS are running around 2 inches for Southern New England! That is the ultimate proof of a tropical air mass.  
SPC Mesoanalysis 09z Precipitable Water
Around 2 PM the bulk of the moisture will be closer to the stalled frontal boundary.  It will continue to back towards the Central US.
WPC 2 PM Surface Forecast
Temperatures this afternoon will climb into low 80's
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 PM (image weatherbell)
When these tropical downpours develop they do not cool off the atmosphere.  One storm forms, rains itself out and it goes back to 75-80 with a dew point of 68-72.  At the 500 mb level here is how the pattern will evolve.  Tonight at 8 PM a strong ridge in the Western Atlantic is readying itself to send waves of summer back into the Northeast (Heat Wave end of week? More this afternoon on that) while our trough continues to back west.
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly 8 PM (image weatherbell)
By tomorrow evening the pattern is expected to look like
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly 8 PM Wed (image weatherbell)
While there will still be some afternoon thunder to watch tomorrow the main triggers will be in the Ohio Valley.  All in all it will be a warm and muggy afternoon.  Some spots will approach 90
06z NAM hires 2 m temp 2 pm Wed (image weatherbell)
On Thursday that boundary will more or less fall apart to our west.
WPC surface forecast 8 am Thursday
Temperatures will be HOT.  It will be humid.  Isolated afternoon thunderstorms but most stay dry.  Keep an eye to the sky that is all
06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Thur (image weatherbell)
Besides Worcester and the Berkshires (and Cape and Islands) everyone should get to 90 on Thursday.  More on the weekend this afternoon have a good one.


Popular posts from this blog

Back To My Roots

You Didn't Really Think Winter Was Over, Did You?

Special Report- June 1, 2011 From A Meteorologist's Perspective