A Record Setting Day in Southern New England

Boston, Providence, and Worcester each set a new maximum temperature record for the date.  The record run continues through Saturday as several more records may fall.  A boundary across Southern New England will be the focus for some showers/downpours in the pre-dawn/early morning hours.

Short Term Forecast
Clouds will increase tonight as a boundary to our north sags south.  It will lift back north between 3-7 AM.  This is when some rain showers will be possible.  Here is the current northeast surface analysis.
WPC Surface Analysis Thursday 4 PM
  Temperatures are well above average to the east of the cold front and south of the warm front.   Records were set throughout the northeast today, including the all-time February record in Burlington, VT.
NWS Northeast Maximum Temps Thursday, Feb 23, 2017 (image Weatherbell)
Here are the simulated radar runs from 4-7 AM tomorrow AM.  Given the warmth, I wouldn't be shocked if someone hears a rumble of thunder or two with these.
22z HRRR Sim Radar Friday 4-7 AM (image Weatherbell)
This is thanks to this boundary lingering in our air space.
WPC Surface Fronts, Precipitation Friday 7 AM 
A fog bank will envelop the South Coast tomorrow morning.  Minimum temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40's!  The average high temperature for the date is around 40.  You can see the effect the boundary has on temperatures in the Northeast.  Northern NY and New England will be in the 30's (which is still very warm for late Feb).
NWS Minimum Temperature Forecast Thursday night into Friday AM (image Weatherbell)
Tomorrow holds all the all-time February record in all four climate sites.  It will take some good clearing tomorrow afternoon to approach these.
Most guidance stays below these values but if the warm front lifts further north than anticipated we may give it a go.
NWS Max temperature forecast Friday record highs circled (image Weatherbell)
It stays warm again Friday night as we remain in the warm sector.  Temperatures fall to the upper 40's.  Clouds and moisture increase ahead of the cold frontal passage Saturday night.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Saturday 7 PM
This spring preview ends with the possibility of thunderstorms in the northeast on Saturday.  It is not often the SPC has a severe thunderstorm area shaded in this part of the country in February.
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook Saturday
I'll be watching.

-Zack Green


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