Mild Weather For February Break

President's Day marks the beginning of February vacation week for most schools across Massachusetts.  Growing up, sometimes this week brought heavy snow and sometimes temperatures crept into the 50's/60's.  Temperatures in the 50's and 60's in February are often just a tease and are followed by some mid-winter cold in early March.
By the end of that week in 2000, we had put down the hockey sticks and picked up our baseball mitts.  In 2003 we had the snowboards out until the beginning of April so you never really know.  The 2003 storm was rated as a "category 4 crippling" snowstorm.  The 27.5" is the all-time record for a single snowstorm at Logan Airport.  This is a very breakable record for Boston and I would expect it to fall in my lifetime (I'm ~28).
Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) Presidents Day 2003

Much of the United States has been warmer than average so far in 2017.  The Pacific Northwest and New England are the only regions of the country near or below average.
Month to date 2 m temperature anomaly (image Weatherbell)
By this time next week, I expect Southern New England to be safely in the red.  Temperatures today and tomorrow are seasonable before a multi-day warm up heading into this weekend.

General Overview/Short Term Forecast
Temperatures maxed near 60 yesterday.  It will be 10-20 degrees cooler today.  Canadian high pressure will temporarily re-take control of our weather pattern.  I expect mostly sunny skies with max temps in the upper 30's/low 40's.  Winds increase out of the north this afternoon.  Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely.
NWS Max temps Monday (image Weatherbell)
Low temperatures tonight drop into the upper teens and low 20's.  Clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon as warm front approaches from the Southwest.  Temperatures should remain in the low to mid 40's, although sea breezes at the coast could keep max temps in the upper 30's,
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 7 AM 
Some light rain or freezing rain is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday AM.  Temperature trends tomorrow will have to watched just in case local highway departments need to treat some roads.  I don't think this is likely, but there is a chance.

Wednesday-Saturday
A storm system will develop in the 4 corners region of the US and move through the Central Plains towards the Great Lakes.  This storm system will produce a major snowstorm across the Upper Plains and parts of the Great Lakes by the end of the week.  Wednesday is in the low to mid 50's,  Thursday appears to be the warmest of the bunch with temperatures approaching the 60's.
00z EURO 500 mb height anomaly Thursday 7 PM (image Weatherbell)
High pressure offshore the Mid-Atlantic and zonal flow from the Pacific will combine on Thursday to bring temperatures well above average.  The 2-24-00 map is pretty close to this (without the cut off near FL).
WPC Daily Weather Map 2-24-2000 7 AM 500 mb
Here are the current max temps forecast on Thursday.
NWS Max temp forecast Thursday 2-23-2017 (image Weatherbell)
The NWS in NYC and Philly are going for the 70's!!  I am researching northeast US late Feb temp records and I will post on that tomorrow.  Friday may be just as warm but we will have to watch for a back door cold front keeping temps in the 40's.  Here is the projected surface chart Friday 7 AM.
WPC Surface Fronts Friday 7 AM
This system impacts Southern New England with wind and rain later Saturday.  I'll be tracking this all week.

-Zack Green


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