Snow and Ice to Rain Today

the GOAT (San Jose Mercury News photo)

I've been in a Patriots stupor for the past few days.  I tried to blog yesterday morning but all I could come up with is "I can't believe they won that f*&%!g game!".  Now that it is sinking in that yes Edelman did catch that ball, James White did score that touchdown, Hightower did strip sack Matty Ice, and Kyle Shanahan really did not run the ball, I can talk about some wintry precipitation that is on its way.

General Overview
The National Weather Service has issued a *Winter Weather Advisory* until 7 PM for most of Southern New England.  South coastal CT, RI, and MA are not included in this.
NWS Boston Headlines Tuesday 2-7-16
Snow, ice, and rain are already advancing into SW CT.  Here is the northeast regional radar loop from 6 AM
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 
This precipitation is lifting up and covers a boundary that stretches from the NY/PA border along the Southern New England coast and into the Atlantic.  Cold high pressure is present to the north.  As the warm moist air is lifted over the boundary it cools, condenses and falls into an air mass that is below freezing.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 7 AM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures are currently in the 30's in SE MA, RI, and CT and in most cases above 32.  South of a Boston to Prov to Hartford line expect mostly rain.  North of this line it is in the upper 20's/low 30's and generally below freezing.  Here are the temperatures at 6 AM.
10z HRRR 2 m temps Tuesday 6 AM (image Weatherbell)
Short Term Forecast
Here is the sim radar round up for today.  Snow and ice will begin falling in the Metrowest corridor after 7 AM.  The parade in Boston will be a mix of snow, sleet, ice, and rain when that begins around 11 AM.  The duck boat drivers better keep the speeds down.  Given all the craziness that happened in 2016, you may have forgotten how bad the duck boat drivers truly are.
10z HRRR Simulated Radar 8, 11 AM 5, 9 PM (image Weatherbell)
This is largely a Northern New England event.  The heaviest precipitation will fall north of the MA Pike.
NWS Total Precipitation Forecast 0-36 hours (Image Weatherbell)
Given the mix precipitation, this map does not tell us much.   Worcester will get slick this afternoon as 0.10" of ice is expected by 7 PM.  Snowfall will not exceed an inch in most places until you get close to the Northern MA border.
NWS Ice accumulation forecast 0-36 hours (image Weatherbell)
NWS Snow Accumulation 0-36 hour (image Weatherbell)
The low lifts well to our west tonight.  Precipitation will let up for a time but another burst between 3-5 AM will bring one last round of rain and some strong winds.  Speaking of winds they will gust 20-30 MPH early this afternoon into this evening. Winds will gust 40-55 MPH tomorrow morning as the cold front passes through the region.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Wednesday 1 AM 
Here is the sim radar at 5 AM as the trailing front rips across SNE.
06z NAM hires simulated radar Wednesday 5 AM (image Weatherbell)
It will be warm tomorrow prior to the FROPA (frontal passage).
NWS Wednesday Max Temperature (image Weatherbell)
And then there is this on Thursday
06z NAM hires sim radar Thursday 1 PM (image Weatherbell)

Talk to you more about this later today.

-Zack Green


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