Lion Like Start to March

3/1/17 640 AM Update-  Multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms for SNE today.  The next batch arrives around lunch time. 
9z HRRR Simulated Radar Wednesday 12 PM (Image Weatherbell)
Another batch looks to follow late afternoon, especially in CT, RI and SE MA.  A third and final batch is likely tonight around 11 PM.  Of more immediate concern is fog in SE MA/RI and a wind threat.  The NWS has issued a *Wind Advisory* region wide and a *Dense Fog Advisory* for said areas.
NWS Wednesday AM Headlines
Winds will gust 40-50 MPH AFTER the cold front passes overnight.  Thursday will be very windy across SNE.  Temperatures are still forecast to rise into the mid 60's today, which puts us in striking distance of the record highs for the date.
More later.

Previous Discussion Below (Tuesday 530 PM Post)

In 1732, a proverb appeared in Thomas Fuller's book Gnomologia: Adagies and Proverbs; Wise Sentences and Witty Sayings, Ancient and Modern that reads "Comes in like a Lion, goes out like a Lamb".  Some smarty used this saying to describe the weather in March in mid-latitude climates.  The "roar" is that of the Arctic wind and the snow hounds that are often present in early March.  In New England we know that early spring is really just an extension of late winter.   The 3rd ranked storm on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) is a crippling snowstorm from March 3-5, 1960 that dropped 20-30" of snow in Eastern MA.

(h/t Sadie Stein, The Paris Review)
March 2-5, 1960 snow accumulation (NESIS)
The top ranked storm on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) is the famous March 1993 Superstorm, which occurred in the middle of the month.
March 12-14, 1993 snow accumulation (NESIS)
Then there is the matter of March 31-April 1, 1997.
March 31-April 1, 1997 storm accumulation (NESIS)
There are some flaws in the proverb but the general point remains the same.  Early March is still winter while early April is spring.  I can safely say there will be no snow tomorrow.  But I can say that March will come in like a lion with thunderstorms roaring from Louisiana to Massachusetts.

Short Term Forecast
There are a few showers entering Western MA/CT as of 5 PM.  These showers will remain fairly weak through early evening as they track to the ENE.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop
We will have to watch this precipitation entering Southern PA.  The atmosphere is primed for precipitation, especially across South Coastal New England.  I am expecting this rain to slide mostly south of SNE, but showers and possibly a thunderstorm will form between 11 PM-5 AM.  I expect more radar coverage than this model currently depicts. 
20z HRRR sim radar Wed 2 AM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures stay in the mid to upper 40's tonight.

Wednesday
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible tomorrow, but forecasting severe thunderstorms for March 1 in Southern New England is something NO ONE is good at.  The majority of communities may not hear a single rumble or thunder or see a bolt of lightning.  There are signs that the one or two ingredients for severe weather may be missing.  That said of the ingredients needed are off the charts.  As a result most of Southern New England is under a "Marginal" or "Slight" severe risk.
SPC Wednesday Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Temperatures will be plenty warm enough for late winter thunderstorms.  Most are in the mid to upper 60's with a shot at the record high for March 1.
NWS Max Temps Wednesday.   Potential record high temps circled (image Weatherbell)
One batch of showers and storms will move through between 11 AM and 2 PM.  I am concerned (for my forecast) that energy in Northern New England may rob these showers of their energy.  This will become clear tomorrow AM so I'll mention the chance of precipitation at lunch.  The next shot, mostly for W MA/CT, is between 5-7 PM.  A final round of thunderstorms is possible as the cold front crosses the region tomorrow night.

Repeat- odds of seeing a thunderstorm tomorrow are low, but if you do see one damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  Hell it happened on Saturday.  It also happened on March 1, 1966 in Berkshire County, although reports are hard to find. 

I'll update in the morning.

-Zack Green


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