The True Roar Will Be Tomorrow

A nice looking thunderstorm moved across South Coastal New England late this morning and early this afternoon.  I think this will be as good as it gets in Southern New England.  Computer guidance is forecasting a few showers as a strong cold front crosses the region overnight.  It is already windy right now but behind the front, the true lion arrives with wind gusts up to 60 MPH on Thursday.
NWS NEXRAD radar 1140 AM (image NOAA)
The lunchtime rain only made it to about the MA Pike (a few showers north of Worcester).  The current Northeast Regional Radar shows action in Eastern NY moving into Western New England as of 3 PM.  This rain will track east so a few more showers are possible through the evening commute, but it is fading fast.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop
Temperatures are not at record levels in Boston, Worcester, Providence, and Hartford.  That said temps have peaked at 65 in Fitchburg and Lawrence so some parts of the region are warm.  It's only in the 40's on the Cape/Islands.  The rest of us are in the 50's.  To our southwest is where one can find the true spring warmth.
19z HRRR 2 m temps 2 PM (image Weatherbell)
Much cooler air in Canada will slowly make its way to Southern New England.  Temperatures will fall into the mid 30's by dinner time Thursday.  So to get there, we see isolated showers tonight.  By 1 AM the cold front should be crossing SNE.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 1 AM
Low pressure entering Quebec is strengthening while high pressure in Central Canada that is descending towards the Upper Midwest.  This is beginning to create the pressure gradient that will deliver strong winds tomorrow.  Some leftover showers will be around in the early AM hours.  Here is the future radar for 4 AM.
18z HRRR simulated radar Thursday 4 AM (image Weatherbell)
At 7 AM, a *High Wind Warning* will go in effect for sustained winds greater than 40 MPH and gusts greater than 58 MPH.  While we may not verify that criteria, it will be close and because of that tree and power line damage is possible.  The ground is rather soft thanks to the snowmelt and recent rains which make uprooted trees more likely.
NWS PM Headlines
The winds will be strongest between dawn and 3 PM.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 1 PM
The low departs later Thursday afternoon so the winds die down tomorrow night.  We then come under the influence of a cold Arctic high and a cold winter air mass.  It will feel like winter again on tomorrow and Friday.  A low will pass to our south Friday so we should avoid snow.  The true cold does not arrive until Friday night.  Saturday would not be out of place in mid-January.

-Zack Green
 

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