Tracking More Rain Showers Tuesday

Multiple rounds of showers will move through Southern New England today.  The first batch will remain in CT/RI/SE MA.  A warm front will begin to lift north later this morning which will bring steady rain back to the region after 1 PM.  Temperatures today will fall short of expectations I set yesterday.  Max temps will be in the upper 40's for another raw early spring day.

General Overview
Here is the radar as of 630 AM.  The heaviest rain in Southern New England at the moment is moving through Long Island Sound.  Coastal CT/RI/MA will see some heavy rain over the next 1-2 hours.  Notice all the rain showers in the northeast that will have to move towards us later today.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar Loop 
Winds are light out there, but they are out of the north.  Weak low pressure moving across Lake Ontario will give way to a new surface low later today across the Mid-Atlantic.
WPC Northeast Surface Analysis 5 AM
Which is too bad, because south and west of that boundary temperatures are already into the 50's.  Yesterday I believed this warm front would lift into Central New England.  As it turns out this front will do what it wants and that means we are stuck with temperatures in the 30's right now.
09z HRRR 2 m temps 7 am (image Weatherbell)
This system looks pretty cool on water vapor satellite.  Notice the tight circulation moving along the Ohio-Kentucky border.  There is also a parade of storms moving into the Western States.  A true early spring pattern is setting up across the US.  We need the water, but many of you are going to be unhappy with me.  If we can squeeze a few 60-70 degree days out of it I'll sign for it, but that wouldn't be until the middle of next week.
GOES_Composite Water Vapor Loop ends 545 AM (NOAA/NWS/NCEP)
Short Term Forecast
By 2 PM the front will move a little to the north, but not enough to help our temperature situation.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Tuesday 2 PM
The future radar at 2 PM looks busy.  The intensity of those radar returns over CT would suggest some thunder and lightning is possible this afternoon.
09z HRRR Simulated Radar Tuesday 2 PM (image Weatherbell)
The rain stays around through the evening commute before exiting around midnight.  Total rainfall will be around 0.5", although anyone who is lucky enough to see a thunderstorm will see close to 1" of rain.  The "jackpot" should be somewhere in CT/RI/SE MA thanks to the combo of the early morning rain and some possible convection this afternoon.
NWS precipitation total forecast through Wednesday 8 PM (image Weatherbell)
I think Southern CT sees more rain than NWS New York is showing.  Here are the max temps
NWS Maximum Temperatures Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 30's, but not until daybreak as the system clears the region.  Most of the night will be mild and damp, with occasional drizzle/fog/low clouds.    Drier air from Canada will clear us out tomorrow, but there will be winds gusting 20-30 MPH and some clouds.  Max temps are forecast to be in the upper 40's and low 50's.

I am watching a storm system for Friday-Saturday that may contain wintry precipitation, especially North of the Pike.  Please don't
throw anything at me.

-Zack Green


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