Friday, March 31, 2017

Storm Live Blog 3/31-4/1

(This thread will stay updated with the latest information until the storm ends.  The latest post will appear first-ZG)

Post 16 4/1/17 10:52 AM
It will drop below freezing tonight so try and clear all the crap off before the re-freeze.
NWS Minimum Temperatures Sunday AM (image Weatherbell)

Post 15- 4/1/17 9:45 AM
Here are some updated snow totals.  Westminster is in the lead, but Ashburnham is right there.  Those Oakmont towns might be the state champ today.

Post 14- 4/1/17 9:30 AM
Warmer air has held on aloft, so the change to snow is delayed.  At about 5000 feet in the atmosphere temperatures are still above freezing.
12z HRRR 850 mb temps 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
By 11 AM it will go below freezing aloft in Southern Worcester and Norfolk Counties.
12z HRRR 850 mb temps 11 AM (image Weatherbell)
Some may see 1-3", but that is about it.

Post 13- 4/1/17 5:37 AM
Winds are picking up across South Coastal New England.

Post 12- 4/1/17 5:15 AM
Good Morning!  Let's take a quick reset.  Here is the surface analysis of this storm as of 2 AM.
WPC Surface Analysis Saturday 2 AM
Theseus isn't the best looking storm I've ever seen. but I'm sure his mom thinks he is handsome.
NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES_East Rainbow IR Satellite 
Sleet mixed with rain will continue along and south of the Pike until around 8-9 AM.  Then, as the low passes by cold air will have a chance to work south changing mostly everyone over to snow to end the event.
07z HRRR Precipitation Type Saturday 9-10 AM (image Weatherbell)
Accumulating snow in Worcester County ends around 1 PM.  There is a brief window to accumulated snow between 9 AM- 1 PM.  Most of Southern New England has a least a layer of ice/sleet on the road so I think we will be able to accumulate some on the roads, despite the April 1 sun.  Another 1" of precipitation is still forecast to fall in Eastern Southern New England with torrential rain heading toward the Cape.
NWS Total Precipitation Saturday 4 AM-Monday 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
Maybe up to 6" of snow in NE MA as the low moves away.
NWS Snow Forecast Through Monday 8 AM (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures will be between 31-34.

Post 11- 3/31/17 10:45 PM
I'll be back tomorrow AM.  A rough night out there, stay warm and safe.

Post 10- 3/31/17 10:11 PM
Road conditions are going downhill all across Massachusetts.  Stay off the roads if you can.

Post 9- 3/31/17 9:37 PM
Ice adding up in Northern Worcester County

Post 8- 3/31/17 8:50 PM
Short range high-resolution computer guidance is suggesting heavy rain will turn to heavy snow tomorrow morning.
22z HRRR Simulated Radar Saturday 7 AM (Image Weatherbell)
The snow looks to continue into the early afternoon.  It will have to snow heavy to accumulate, but 2-4" is possible.  We'll see if this trend continues.

Post 7- 3/31/17 8:24 PM
Ashburnham has jumped to the top of the snow leaderboard with 3.5".

Post 6- 3/31/17 8:00 PM
Here is where we stand as of 8 PM.  It is snowing in Beverly, Lawrence, and but rain is being reported elsewhere in Eastern Massachusetts.  Freezing rain is being reported in Fitchburg and Worcester.  8 PM temperatures show the colder air to the north.
22z HRRR 2 m temps 8 PM (image Weatherbell)
Lots of moisture to go.
NWS Northeast Regional Radar 

Post 5- 3/31/17 7:14 PM
Winds will gust 35-40 MPH tonight in Worcester County.  Winds will gust 45-55 in SE MA.
NWS Boston Max Wind Gust Forecast
If there is enough ice, this presents a big tree/power line problem tonight.  Keep an eye on the glaze.  If there is one the threat is low.  If there is a glaze, charge your electronics.

Post 4 - 3/31/17 6:56 PM
I have a growing concern of a freezing rain event in Western Worcester County and parts of Western Massachusetts.  The radar is already showing this and Worcester Airport is reporting light freezing rain.
Temperatures aloft will be above freezing whole temperatures at the surface remain below 32.  There will be some power outages where ice accumulates over 0.1".  This makes travel a nightmare as well.  Head to Providence if you want to go out to the city tonight.

Post 3- 3/31/17 6:44 PM
Some snow totals so far.  These are all in Massachusetts and near Route 2,  Rowe and Heath are near Florida, Massachusetts in Franklin County.

Post 2- 3/31/17 6:08 PM
The spring side of this storm system is making it a loud evening Southern Virginia and Northern North Carolina.  There is a tornado watch in this area.
SPC Activity Loop through 603 PM
There are two tornado warnings at the moment.  One is in Northeast North Carolina and the other is moving right towards Virginia Beach.

Temperatures are in the 70's in these areas, helping to fuel these strong storms.  The atmosphere is primed to produce moisture tonight.  The new surface low will start to form soon off the Jersey Shore.
WPC Surface Analysis 5 PM Mid-Atlantic 

Post 1- 3/31/17 5:17 PM
When the sun goes down, we won't be singing.  Southern Worcester County and Coastal NE MA are now under a *Winter Storm Warning*.  
NWS PM Headlines
Heavy sleet and snow are likely tonight north of a Brockton-Providence-Hartford line.  Here is the storm shaping up on satellite.  The Weather Channel has dubbed this Winter Storm Theseus.  I guess I'll use it, but it's definitely not as cool as Stella.  
NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES_east Water Vapor Satellite
The precipitation was mostly wet and not white this morning and afternoon in lower elevations thanks to a low intensity and marginal temperatures.  Tonight, the low intensifies south of New England.  Temperatures will hover right around 30-32 tonight.  Precipitation will be all over the map with sleet, snow, and freezing rain all falling from the night sky.  
19z HRRR 18 hour simulated radar ending 9 AM Saturday (image Weatherbell)
When the precipitation is heaviest it will fall as snow, sleet, or both.  When precipitation lessens in intensity it will be mostly freezing rain/rain.  As you can imagine that makes accumulation tough.  Some snow will fall on untreated roads but most of it will accumulate as a cement slop on grass and walkways.  Where it stays all snow watch out.

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