Wrapping Up Stella, Looking Ahead

It is still snowing in Burlington, VT where 28.7" of snow had fallen as of 10 AM.  Binghamton, NY has over 31" of snow which is the greatest 24-hour snow total on record.  The low moved over Southern New England which shifted the truly epic snow totals to Western MA, Eastern NY, Northeast PA, and Western VT.   Snow changed to sleet in South Central MA at 3 PM and rain around 5 PM, but after around a foot of snow fell.   Snow fell fast and furious between 10 AM and 3 PM when snow rates were 2-3"/hr.  Widespread 12-18" and 18-24" forecasts didn't really pan out for many so this storm can be considered a bust in Boston and some other areas of Eastern MA.  As a weather forecaster, the sleet/rain/wind angle was underplayed for Southeastern New England.
NWS SNE Snow Totals Winter Storm Stella
Looking at that map I just wish I moved the 8-12 back into Middlesex and Worcester County but overall I think I did okay with snow totals.  Blizzard conditions verified at Lawrence but that was the only location in Southern New England.  For March, this was a nice storm.  It ended in the top 6 in Hartford and Worcester, the two inland Southern New England climate sites.  6.6" fell in Boston and 3.3" in Providence.
NWS Boston top 1 day March Snowstorms
 Around 50K customers were without power at the as the low crossed the Cape yesterday afternoon.  The pressure dropped to around 980 mb.  I know some people have 6th weather sense where they feel pain in their joints when rapid pressure changes occur.
WPC Surface Analysis Tuesday 5 PM
A list of wind damage and snow totals can be found at the National Weather Service homepage.  The track brought a surge of warm air into SE New England.  The computer models showed some historic potential with this storm so I think we (as meteorologists) were right to talk this storm up.  The track clearly shifted west on Sunday and so did the historic potential.  Forecasters were slow to shift to this track.  One simple change is to just be conservative with snow numbers.  Snow lovers don't care if a storm under performs.  Forecasting something that has rarely happened sets one up for failure.  Another problem is communication,  99% of the time that is the fault of the scientist trying to explain to the non-scientist but sometimes you listen to people talk about the weather like...
Not an original idea, H//T Matt Lanza twitter
There are a lot of places to get information so I will continue to try and be as clear and direct as possible, while also conveying the uncertainly of weather forecasting.

Wednesday-Thursday Forecast
Clouds will increase this afternoon and there is a slight chance for a snow shower between 4-7 PM.   Western and Central SNE have the best chance to see some flakes. Winds are out of the west at 10-15 MPH with gusts to 25.  Max temps will be in the upper 20's and low 30's.
NWS Max Temps Wednesday (image Weatherbell)
Despite the low temps the March sun will help melt some snow and it will feel okay when the wind is not blowing.  The clouds will clear up overnight so lows will fall into the teens tonight.
NWS Minimum Temperature Forecast Thursday AM (image Weatherbell)
Counter clockwise flow around low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes (Stella) and clockwise flow from high pressure descending into the Southeast will keep temperatures well below average tomorrow.
WPC Surface Fronts/Precipitation Thursday 8 AM 
Max temps might be a little warmer, but still cold tomorrow.
NWS Max Temperatures Thursday (image Weatherbell)
It will be windy again tomorrow.  I'm keeping an eye on some snow this weekend.  Saturday looks like light snow showers with temperatures in the mid 30's.  Sunday could be interesting if this storm slows down a bit.  Some plowable snow is possible in SE New England, but I'm not overly impressed with the setup.

-Zack Green


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