Morning Thoughts

After reviewing the overnight computer model data there isn't much to add for Tropical Storm Sandy.  Sandy will become a Hurricane today before striking Jamaica and then Cuba.  The interaction with Cuba will not take as great a toll on Sandy as it has on previous cyclones due to a S-N movement, rather than WNW along the island.  That still leaves us in the Bahama's with a Hurricane tomorrow night.  Very impressed with the energy Sandy has to work with and its slow organization.  Here is Sandy on the water vapor this morning.

Sandy is on left; Tony is weak system in top right

All of this energy will interact with a cold front moving east in the day 5-6 range.  Even if Sandy escapes out to sea a Nor'Easter will develop along the coast and would be intense.  I'm not a forecaster that likes to change with every model run, however guidance has slowly trended to a Northeast landfall of Sandy.  The entire Eastern Seaboard will feel the affects of Sandy.  South Florida has just been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch as Sandy will have such a large circulation.  A loaded Tropical system interacting with a cold arctic air mass with a block near Greenland...wild times in the weather world.  Best advice is to have a plan ready in the growing likelihood Sandy slams into the Northeast.

Finally while the American model insists on an out to sea track (though it wants to develop a coastal low; it just doesn't show it yet) many of its ensemble members (same physics, slightly different initial conditions) shows most members re curving back into New England.  This is a trend west so we'll see if it continues.

Image courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue Weatherbell

We'll get a warm up Friday and Saturday with temps near 70.  This may linger into Sunday.  In the near term today is Mostly cloudy with a high around 60.  Showers and fog will burn off slowly.  Northern MA and points north will see the most sun today.  Tomorrow is mostly sunny for the majority of region.  Next rain chance is with Sandy/Sandy's daughter.  I wonder if the Weather Channel is going to name Sandy's snowstorm.  That's right while New England gets whipped with heavy rain and wind other portions of the Northeast (western NY, PA, WV) will be having a raging snowstorm.