Some Needed Precipitation Tonight

My belief is that most of Tuesday will be dry.  There will be some needed rain overnight but with the lawns as dry as they are people will still need to water this evening and tomorrow.  Let's take a quick look at this.

WPC Surface Analysis 5 PM 
A cold front sweeping through Ontario and the Great Lakes will cross New England tomorrow.  While the actual passage of the front will be dry an isolated shower is possible.  The biggest threat will be ahead of this line after midnight across all of SNE.  Latest high resolution radar trends bring the thunderstorms into Central MA and the Blackstone Valley around 3-6 AM.
22z HRRR simulated radar Tuesday 4 AM (image NeXLaB Wx center college of dupage)
Precipitation totals will be 0.25-0.4 inches max and that is only in the embedded thunderstorms. Most of us see less than 0.1".  Frequent lightning and gusty winds will accompany the downpours so don't be alarmed when you wake up early tomorrow morning.  By 9 AM most of the precipitation will clear the South Coast.
22z HRRR simulated radar Tuesday 9 AM (image College of Dupage NeXLab wx center)
Drought conditions are growing again across the region just as the gypsie moths eat away at our trees.  It certainly is odd to see the bare trees on June 20.
US Drought Monitor June 14. 2016
Temperatures climb into the mid 80's tomorrows in Eastern MA, the Blackstone Valley and Western MA.
NWS NDFD max temperature forecast Tuesday (image Weatherbell)
Early glance at the weekend looks great.  Maybe some rain Thursday night but the drought will get worse this week.  No end in sight to the dry spell that is now over a year old.  Often times a tropical system can wipe out an entire deficit in one storm.  While we will likely have to wait until August before something like that happens there is a Tropical Storm in the Southern Gulf of Mexico that will make landfall in Mexico.  The storm is weak but it marks the earliest occurrence of the 4th tropical storm on record.  This is Danielle
NOAA GOES_floater Rainbow IR satellite 1245 PM
She has now made landfall which is probably good.  She was looking really nice this afternoon on satellite.  I love tropical meteorology so the action is welcome after several  below average seasons.   As for the weekend I am thinking the Bermuda high is in control.  Warm and dry- perfect for the pool and grill (or lake, ocean).
WPC Surface Forecast Saturday 8 AM
-Zack Green


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