UPDATE- 5 AM Strong Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday

A few showers are moving into Southwest Worcester County as of the 5 AM hour.  A larger batch of showers is tracking through Western MA into Vermont and NH.  It appears these storms continue to trek into Northern New England and dissipate around 10-11 AM.
Boston radar 451 AM (RadarScope Pro)

In its wake skies will clear the atmosphere will destabilize.  The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded Southern New England to a slight risk.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Tuesday
High resolution guidance is favoring action in Eastern MA.  There are some limiting factors that should keep the region out of a widespread severe weather outbreak but any thunderstorms will have the potential for hail and gusty to damaging winds.
8z HRRR Simulated Radar 4 PM (image College of Dupage NeXLaB)

Keep an eye on the dew points today.  I will update a new post as needed with severe watches/warnings.

-Zack Green

Previous discussion below

An approaching cold front with strong low pressure in Quebec will approach Southern New England on Tuesday.  Initial showers and thunderstorms will form overnight through tomorrow morning.  If these clear quickly tomorrow morning the atmosphere will destabilize for the afternoon.  At that point strong to severe thunderstorms will form throughout New England.  Primary hazards will be hail and damaging winds although an isolated tornado is possible.

General Overview
Here is the projected surface chart tomorrow 8 AM
WPC Surface Forecast Tuesday 8 AM
Some activity will form overnight into the morning hours.  Here is one high resolution computer model radar forecast at 6 AM
18z NAM Hires simulated radar 6 AM Tuesday (Image College of Dupage NeXLaB)
Not everyone will get wet.  These storms will be scattered.  These should clear by 9 AM and if so we will have a good shot at seeing strong thunderstorms after 2 PM.  Here is the surface chart at 2 PM
WPC Surface Forecast Tuesday 2 PM
You can see Tropical Storm Colin off the NC coast at this time.  The approaching cold front that will help produce the severe weather will also force Colin out to sea.  This is good because as Colin becomes a non tropical system it will strengthen and become a fairly strong cyclone.  As the front kicks out Colin cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere will help allow for strong winds and hail in anything thunderstorms.
18z NAM Hires Simulated Radar 3 PM Tuesday
This post will be updated tomorrow to really hone in on the hazards but if you have to be outside tomorrow afternoon please keep an eye to the sky.  High temperatures should reach the low 80's with dew points in the low to mid 60's- a tropical air mass for part of the day.

-Zack Green


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