A powerful sub 970 mb low will skirt across Eastern Massachusetts into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night. The low will move into Downeast Maine Friday AM. Heavy snow will fall in Central and Northern New England away from the coast in all the big ski/snowboard areas. Heavy rain will fall in Southern New England for much of the storm. A change to snow late Thursday night could give Southern Worcester, Metro Springfield, and Northwest Middlesex county into Essex county 1-2". Wind will gust 40-60 mph as the low deepens and moves through our region.
Short Term Forecast
Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 20's as high pressure moves east into the Atlantic. Winds will be light and skies will be party cloudy.
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| NWS Minimum Temps Thursday AM (image Weatherbell) |
Temperatures are cold enough to support snow when it starts around 10 AM. The atmosphere will be able to support snow in the western 2/3 of tMA through noon time before a change over to rain. The rain snow line may jog back forth in the 495 belt from Essex County to Worcester and then over to Springfield through early afternoon. Plain rain to start in SE MA/RI/CT.
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| 18z NAM hires parallel Sim radar Thursday 12 PM (image Weatherbell) |
Elevation will play a critical role in this storm. This is a new upgrade to one of the American computer models which shows warming in all the low elevation regions of Southern New England. The Berkshires and Northern Worcester County stay colder then the rest of the region. So it looks like through 4 PM tomorrow an inch or so is possible
Thursday Afternoon-Friday Morning
Here is the simulated radar for tomorrow evening/ Notice how the rain snow line progresses well into Southern New England and even into New Hampshire. However the line will collapse back to the coast after 8 PM.
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| 18z NAM hires parallel Simulated Radar 4, 6, 8, 10 PM (image Weatherbell) |
Snow adjacent to the rain snow line will drop 1-2" in the Blackstone and Merrimack Valleys of MA. Total precipitation is 0.75-1.0 in Southern New England.
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| 18z NAM hires total precipitation through Friday 12 AM (image Weatherbell) |
Winds will be strong at times as the low crosses Southern New England. Minimum pressure will be around 980 as it crosses SE MA between 7-9 PM. Winds will be strong along the South Coast with 50-60 mph winds. 35-45 MPH winds are likely in the rain bands. In SE NH and ME this will pose a power outage problem as high winds and wet snow on tree branches are a bad combination.
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| 18z NAM hires parallel Mean Sea Level Pressure Friday 12 AM (image Weatherbell) |
As this low bombs Friday AM into Southern Maine it is modeled in the 960s! This is a strong storm that will produce high snow totals in Northern New England, strong wind gusts in Southern New England and a combination of both in between. Winds subside as the low moves away and high pressure briefly moves in. Max temps will be in the 30s. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper teens and low 20's. Saturday is seasonable with temps in the low 30's. New Years eve has a slight chance of snow showers and temperatures in the upper 20's.
It's not a Southern New England blockbuster storm but who wants to waste those during a week of vacation?
-Zack Green
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