Snow to Rain on Monday

Snow will move into Southern New England Sunday night into Monday AM.  A weak area of low pressure will pass over coastal SNE which will bring some warmer air into the system and change precipitation over to rain by midday.  This system showed more potential early in the week but atmospheric conditions just did not line up.  That said this is only a moderate confidence storm.  

Saturday-Sunday Forecast
High pressure will remain in control of our weather for the next 24-30 hours.  Temperatures crashed into the low teens last night.  Highs today will only max out in the upper 20's  That is a slow recovery.  Average max temps for December 10 are 38 in Worcester and 43 in Boston so we will be a good 10-15 F below normal today.
NWS max temps Saturday (Image Weatherbell)
Lows tonight will again drop into the teens.  There will not be much of a recovery on Sunday for interior SNE.  SE MA will warm into the low 30's while Worcester area is around 28-29.
NWS max temps Sunday (Image Weatherbell)
Clouds will increase Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.  Here is the surface fronts/precipitation evolution from Saturday 7 PM to Monday 7 AM.  Watch as the snow tracks from the Midwest towards the Northeast.
WPC Surface fronts/precip 12/10 7 PM through 12/12 7 AM
The Bills-Steelers game in Buffalo and the Browns-Bengals game in Cleveland will be impacted by snow.  Cleveland has been a skidmark on the NFL's shield this season so hopefully the snow can cover up some of the stink and maybe the Browns can get their first win.  There are some conflicting signals about when the snow will start.  It may begin right around 9 PM or it will hold off until midnight or so.  I lean towards the earlier start.
06z NAM hires sim radar Sunday 10 PM  (image Weatherbell)
Temperatures overnight Sunday into Monday will fall into the 20's which easily supports all snow to start, even for the South Coast/Cape and Islands.
NWS min temps Sunday PM-Monday AM (image Weatherbell)
Notice those temperatures around Long Island in the low 30's?  These will surge north as the low passes by/over SNE.  In fact by 7 AM we may be over to sleet/mix for most of the region, especially inside 495 and south of the Pike.  The yellows in the sim radar image below are the  model picking up ice.
06z NAM hires sim radar Monday 7 AM (image Weatherbell)
Precipitation is done by noon time.  Total snow looks to be 2-4" before a changeover. 
NWS snow prediction next 72 hours (image Weatherbell)
These numbers will go up if the cold can hold on a bit longer which is possible and that is what I will track the next 36 hours before this hits.  I would imagine most school districts will go with a delay and not a closing on Monday, especially the further south and east one is.

-Zack Green


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